Incumbent Democratic Representative Sara Jacobs advances to the November 2026 general election after securing 57.7% in the June top-two primary against Republican Ricardo Cabrera, who received 37%. The district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and urban-suburban San Diego demographics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% Democratic probability. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on Jacobs’ prior 60%+ general election margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A national partisan shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical voting patterns make such reversals improbable without extraordinary developments before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,922 交易量
$33,922 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
5%
$33,922 交易量
$33,922 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$18,213 交易量
95%
共和黨
$15,709 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Sara Jacobs advances to the November 2026 general election after securing 57.7% in the June top-two primary against Republican Ricardo Cabrera, who received 37%. The district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and urban-suburban San Diego demographics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% Democratic probability. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on Jacobs’ prior 60%+ general election margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A national partisan shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical voting patterns make such reversals improbable without extraordinary developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$33,922結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Sara Jacobs advances to the November 2026 general election after securing 57.7% in the June top-two primary against Republican Ricardo Cabrera, who received 37%. The district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and urban-suburban San Diego demographics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% Democratic probability. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on Jacobs’ prior 60%+ general election margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A national partisan shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical voting patterns make such reversals improbable without extraordinary developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,922結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETIncumbent Democratic Representative Sara Jacobs advances to the November 2026 general election after securing 57.7% in the June top-two primary against Republican Ricardo Cabrera, who received 37%. The district’s Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+10, consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, and urban-suburban San Diego demographics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 95% Democratic probability. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on Jacobs’ prior 60%+ general election margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A national partisan shift, late scandal affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though structural factors and historical voting patterns make such reversals improbable without extraordinary developments before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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