Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 28, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest forecast projecting this maximum under persistent cloudy skies and northerly winds, which limit solar heating and convective warming. Current observations from Beijing's meteorological stations align closely, with daytime readings peaking near this threshold amid overcast conditions that have characterized the past week, cooler than the late-April climatological average of around 22°C. Model consensus from regional forecasts reinforces stability, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected prolonged clearing in the afternoon, potentially enabling brief spikes to 22°C via enhanced insolation; official end-of-day data from CMA will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月28日北京最高溫度？
4月28日北京最高溫度？
21°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$173,718 交易量
$173,718 交易量
2026-04-28
16°C或以下
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
是
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C或更高
否
21°C 100.0%
16°C或以下 <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$173,718 交易量
$173,718 交易量
2026-04-28
16°C或以下
$2,904 交易量
否
17°C
$1,665 交易量
否
18°C
$4,073 交易量
否
19°C
$9,898 交易量
否
20°C
$63,903 交易量
否
21°C
$19,838 交易量
是
22°C
$16,732 交易量
否
23°C
$12,436 交易量
否
24°C
$17,821 交易量
否
25°C
$15,322 交易量
否
26°C或更高
$9,126 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 28, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest forecast projecting this maximum under persistent cloudy skies and northerly winds, which limit solar heating and convective warming. Current observations from Beijing's meteorological stations align closely, with daytime readings peaking near this threshold amid overcast conditions that have characterized the past week, cooler than the late-April climatological average of around 22°C. Model consensus from regional forecasts reinforces stability, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected prolonged clearing in the afternoon, potentially enabling brief spikes to 22°C via enhanced insolation; official end-of-day data from CMA will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 26, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
交易量
$173,718結束日期
2026-04-28市場開放時間
Apr 26, 2026, 12:12 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 28, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest forecast projecting this maximum under persistent cloudy skies and northerly winds, which limit solar heating and convective warming. Current observations from Beijing's meteorological stations align closely, with daytime readings peaking near this threshold amid overcast conditions that have characterized the past week, cooler than the late-April climatological average of around 22°C. Model consensus from regional forecasts reinforces stability, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected prolonged clearing in the afternoon, potentially enabling brief spikes to 22°C via enhanced insolation; official end-of-day data from CMA will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$173,718結束日期
2026-04-28市場開放時間
Apr 26, 2026, 12:12 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature reaching exactly 21°C on April 28, driven by the China Meteorological Administration's (CMA) latest forecast projecting this maximum under persistent cloudy skies and northerly winds, which limit solar heating and convective warming. Current observations from Beijing's meteorological stations align closely, with daytime readings peaking near this threshold amid overcast conditions that have characterized the past week, cooler than the late-April climatological average of around 22°C. Model consensus from regional forecasts reinforces stability, though a realistic challenge could arise from unexpected prolonged clearing in the afternoon, potentially enabling brief spikes to 22°C via enhanced insolation; official end-of-day data from CMA will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions