Current forecast models from multiple sources project a daily maximum near 32°C in Beijing on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity, aligning with the market's near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects real-time observational data and numerical weather prediction consensus showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 18–19°C to afternoon peaks consistent with historical September extremes, where the all-time high reached 32.6°C. Trader consensus treats the outcome as effectively settled absent major forecast revisions. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized precipitation, or shifts in steering patterns that could cap the high below the threshold, though current atmospheric conditions make such deviations unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月11日北京最高溫度？
9月11日北京最高溫度？
32°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$87,439 交易量
$87,439 交易量
2026-09-11
25°C或以下
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
是
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C或以上
否
32°C 100.0%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$87,439 交易量
$87,439 交易量
2026-09-11
25°C或以下
$394 交易量
否
26°C
$1,052 交易量
否
27°C
$1,976 交易量
否
28°C
$2,719 交易量
否
29°C
$6,302 交易量
否
30°C
$9,288 交易量
否
31°C
$24,223 交易量
否
32°C
$14,681 交易量
是
33°C
$11,564 交易量
否
34°C
$10,467 交易量
否
35°C或以上
$4,771 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from multiple sources project a daily maximum near 32°C in Beijing on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity, aligning with the market's near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects real-time observational data and numerical weather prediction consensus showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 18–19°C to afternoon peaks consistent with historical September extremes, where the all-time high reached 32.6°C. Trader consensus treats the outcome as effectively settled absent major forecast revisions. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized precipitation, or shifts in steering patterns that could cap the high below the threshold, though current atmospheric conditions make such deviations unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$87,439結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from multiple sources project a daily maximum near 32°C in Beijing on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity, aligning with the market's near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects real-time observational data and numerical weather prediction consensus showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 18–19°C to afternoon peaks consistent with historical September extremes, where the all-time high reached 32.6°C. Trader consensus treats the outcome as effectively settled absent major forecast revisions. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized precipitation, or shifts in steering patterns that could cap the high below the threshold, though current atmospheric conditions make such deviations unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$87,439結束日期
2026-09-11市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 12:57 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Current forecast models from multiple sources project a daily maximum near 32°C in Beijing on September 11 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity, aligning with the market's near-100% implied probability for that exact outcome. This positioning reflects real-time observational data and numerical weather prediction consensus showing temperatures climbing from overnight lows around 18–19°C to afternoon peaks consistent with historical September extremes, where the all-time high reached 32.6°C. Trader consensus treats the outcome as effectively settled absent major forecast revisions. Realistic challenges include unexpected increases in cloud cover, localized precipitation, or shifts in steering patterns that could cap the high below the threshold, though current atmospheric conditions make such deviations unlikely before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions