Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a likely high of 32–34°C in Madrid on September 26, driven by continued subsidence under a stable high-pressure ridge and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation. Light southerly winds and low humidity will limit mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping the thermal profile above the late-September climatological average of ~24°C. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 31–38°C range. Traders are weighting the latest AEMET and ECMWF runs ahead of the final 48-hour updates that typically refine the peak by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月26日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月26日馬德裏氣溫最高？
34°C 58%
33°C 30%
35°C 17%
32°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
5%
32°C
15%
33°C
30%
34°C
58%
35°C
17%
36°C
1%
37°C
5%
38°C
3%
39°C或以上
<1%
34°C 58%
33°C 30%
35°C 17%
32°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
29°C或以下
$10 交易量
<1%
30°C
$0 交易量
3%
31°C
$0 交易量
5%
32°C
$0 交易量
15%
33°C
$0 交易量
30%
34°C
$132 交易量
58%
35°C
$0 交易量
17%
36°C
$5 交易量
1%
37°C
$0 交易量
5%
38°C
$0 交易量
3%
39°C或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a likely high of 32–34°C in Madrid on September 26, driven by continued subsidence under a stable high-pressure ridge and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation. Light southerly winds and low humidity will limit mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping the thermal profile above the late-September climatological average of ~24°C. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 31–38°C range. Traders are weighting the latest AEMET and ECMWF runs ahead of the final 48-hour updates that typically refine the peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$147結束日期
2026-09-26市場開放時間
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a likely high of 32–34°C in Madrid on September 26, driven by continued subsidence under a stable high-pressure ridge and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation. Light southerly winds and low humidity will limit mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping the thermal profile above the late-September climatological average of ~24°C. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 31–38°C range. Traders are weighting the latest AEMET and ECMWF runs ahead of the final 48-hour updates that typically refine the peak by 1–2°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$147結束日期
2026-09-26市場開放時間
Sep 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from European models indicate a likely high of 32–34°C in Madrid on September 26, driven by continued subsidence under a stable high-pressure ridge and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that favor strong daytime insolation. Light southerly winds and low humidity will limit mixing and evaporative cooling, keeping the thermal profile above the late-September climatological average of ~24°C. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds across the 31–38°C range. Traders are weighting the latest AEMET and ECMWF runs ahead of the final 48-hour updates that typically refine the peak by 1–2°C.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions