Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月25日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月25日馬德裏氣溫最高？
35°C 63%
34°C 29%
36°C 14%
37°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
30°C或以下
<1%
31°C
4%
32°C
6%
33°C
6%
34°C
29%
35°C
63%
36°C
14%
37°C
6%
38°C
2%
39°C
2%
40°C或更高
<1%
35°C 63%
34°C 29%
36°C 14%
37°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
30°C或以下
$19 交易量
<1%
31°C
$0 交易量
4%
32°C
$0 交易量
6%
33°C
$0 交易量
6%
34°C
$0 交易量
29%
35°C
$127 交易量
63%
36°C
$0 交易量
14%
37°C
$4 交易量
6%
38°C
$0 交易量
2%
39°C
$0 交易量
2%
40°C或更高
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$145結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$145結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast guidance from AEMET and ensemble models shows Madrid under persistent high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow on September 25, supporting afternoon maxima near 33–34 °C—well above the 24.4 °C 1991–2020 climatological average. Dry air and strong insolation under the current warm anomaly have sustained daytime highs 5–9 °C above normal through late September, elevating the chance of a 35 °C reading at the official Retiro station while limiting upside risk above 36 °C. Traders have priced 35 °C as the leading outcome at 63.5 % implied probability because model runs cluster around that threshold with modest spread; the next AEMET update and morning sounding data will refine the final maximum before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions