The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Seoul/Incheon on September 19 stems from real-time observational data confirming that exact maximum under clear skies, light northeast winds around 5–10 km/h, and stable high pressure near 1020 hPa. Late-September climatology in the region typically features daytime peaks of 24–28°C with low precipitation risk, and multiple model runs plus station reports aligned precisely on this value rather than deviating toward 27°C or 29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus draws from official monitoring networks tracking surface temperatures, with minimal uncertainty from steering patterns or cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a late-day measurement revision or station-specific discrepancy exceeding 1°C, though current data show no such variance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月19日首爾（仁川）最高溫度？
9月19日首爾（仁川）最高溫度？
28°C 100%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$55,403 交易量
$55,403 交易量
2026-09-19
23°C或以下
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
是
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C或以上
否
28°C 100%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$55,403 交易量
$55,403 交易量
2026-09-19
23°C或以下
$345 交易量
否
24°C
$2,518 交易量
否
25°C
$2,938 交易量
否
26°C
$6,978 交易量
否
27°C
$10,297 交易量
否
28°C
$15,031 交易量
是
29°C
$9,986 交易量
否
30°C
$5,608 交易量
否
31°C
$1,023 交易量
否
32°C
$135 交易量
否
33°C或以上
$544 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Seoul/Incheon on September 19 stems from real-time observational data confirming that exact maximum under clear skies, light northeast winds around 5–10 km/h, and stable high pressure near 1020 hPa. Late-September climatology in the region typically features daytime peaks of 24–28°C with low precipitation risk, and multiple model runs plus station reports aligned precisely on this value rather than deviating toward 27°C or 29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus draws from official monitoring networks tracking surface temperatures, with minimal uncertainty from steering patterns or cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a late-day measurement revision or station-specific discrepancy exceeding 1°C, though current data show no such variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$55,403結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Seoul/Incheon on September 19 stems from real-time observational data confirming that exact maximum under clear skies, light northeast winds around 5–10 km/h, and stable high pressure near 1020 hPa. Late-September climatology in the region typically features daytime peaks of 24–28°C with low precipitation risk, and multiple model runs plus station reports aligned precisely on this value rather than deviating toward 27°C or 29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus draws from official monitoring networks tracking surface temperatures, with minimal uncertainty from steering patterns or cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a late-day measurement revision or station-specific discrepancy exceeding 1°C, though current data show no such variance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$55,403結束日期
2026-09-19市場開放時間
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The dominant 100% market-implied probability for a 28°C high in Seoul/Incheon on September 19 stems from real-time observational data confirming that exact maximum under clear skies, light northeast winds around 5–10 km/h, and stable high pressure near 1020 hPa. Late-September climatology in the region typically features daytime peaks of 24–28°C with low precipitation risk, and multiple model runs plus station reports aligned precisely on this value rather than deviating toward 27°C or 29°C. This skin-in-the-game consensus draws from official monitoring networks tracking surface temperatures, with minimal uncertainty from steering patterns or cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a late-day measurement revision or station-specific discrepancy exceeding 1°C, though current data show no such variance.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions