**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 17°C for Amsterdam on August 30, 2026 (90% implied probability), with 14°C a distant second at 10%.** This positioning reflects official forecast consensus from models and agencies showing an overnight minimum near 15–17°C amid mild, moist southerly flow. Cloud cover and light rain or showers through the night have limited radiative cooling, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to the long-term average low of ~12.5°C for the date. Recent observations from Schiphol and nearby stations recorded evening values around 17–18°C, with dew points near 14–15°C supporting minimal further drop. Historical analogs under similar late-summer setups rarely dip below 15°C when cloud and wind persist. Model runs show little spread, with the primary uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing or wind shift that could allow a brief dip toward 14°C before dawn. No major data releases or shifts have altered this outlook in the past 24 hours, locking in the market-implied odds around the 17°C threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日阿姆斯特丹的最低溫度？
8月30日阿姆斯特丹的最低溫度？
17°C 100%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$1,129 交易量
$1,129 交易量
2026-08-30
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
17°C 100%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$1,129 交易量
$1,129 交易量
2026-08-30
13°C or below
$15 交易量
No
14°C
$37 交易量
No
15°C
$123 交易量
No
16°C
$108 交易量
No
17°C
$87 交易量
Yes
18°C
$176 交易量
No
19°C
$344 交易量
No
20°C
$60 交易量
No
21°C
$70 交易量
No
22°C
$55 交易量
No
23°C or higher
$55 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 17°C for Amsterdam on August 30, 2026 (90% implied probability), with 14°C a distant second at 10%.** This positioning reflects official forecast consensus from models and agencies showing an overnight minimum near 15–17°C amid mild, moist southerly flow.
Cloud cover and light rain or showers through the night have limited radiative cooling, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to the long-term average low of ~12.5°C for the date. Recent observations from Schiphol and nearby stations recorded evening values around 17–18°C, with dew points near 14–15°C supporting minimal further drop. Historical analogs under similar late-summer setups rarely dip below 15°C when cloud and wind persist.
Model runs show little spread, with the primary uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing or wind shift that could allow a brief dip toward 14°C before dawn. No major data releases or shifts have altered this outlook in the past 24 hours, locking in the market-implied odds around the 17°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$1,129結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 17°C for Amsterdam on August 30, 2026 (90% implied probability), with 14°C a distant second at 10%.** This positioning reflects official forecast consensus from models and agencies showing an overnight minimum near 15–17°C amid mild, moist southerly flow.
Cloud cover and light rain or showers through the night have limited radiative cooling, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to the long-term average low of ~12.5°C for the date. Recent observations from Schiphol and nearby stations recorded evening values around 17–18°C, with dew points near 14–15°C supporting minimal further drop. Historical analogs under similar late-summer setups rarely dip below 15°C when cloud and wind persist.
Model runs show little spread, with the primary uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing or wind shift that could allow a brief dip toward 14°C before dawn. No major data releases or shifts have altered this outlook in the past 24 hours, locking in the market-implied odds around the 17°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,129結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 17°C for Amsterdam on August 30, 2026 (90% implied probability), with 14°C a distant second at 10%.** This positioning reflects official forecast consensus from models and agencies showing an overnight minimum near 15–17°C amid mild, moist southerly flow. Cloud cover and light rain or showers through the night have limited radiative cooling, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to the long-term average low of ~12.5°C for the date. Recent observations from Schiphol and nearby stations recorded evening values around 17–18°C, with dew points near 14–15°C supporting minimal further drop. Historical analogs under similar late-summer setups rarely dip below 15°C when cloud and wind persist. Model runs show little spread, with the primary uncertainty tied to exact timing of any clearing or wind shift that could allow a brief dip toward 14°C before dawn. No major data releases or shifts have altered this outlook in the past 24 hours, locking in the market-implied odds around the 17°C threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions