Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Beijing on September 25 with light southerly winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 18°C amid a post-frontal cooling trend that dropped highs to 23°C on the 24th. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C outcomes, while the balanced 47% probabilities on extremes below 13°C or above 23°C reflect uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, potential shifts in cloud cover, and model spread on boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 15–16°C lows provide context, but the current stable high-pressure influence and lack of strong cold-air advection limit downside risk unless an unexpected northerly surge develops overnight. Traders will watch the next model runs and official updates for any revisions to minimum thresholds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月25日北京最低溫度？
9月25日北京最低溫度？
13°C或以下 94%
23°C或以上 94%
22°C 39%
16°C 38%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
13°C或以下
94%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
38%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
21%
20°C
38%
21°C
38%
22°C
39%
23°C或以上
94%
13°C或以下 94%
23°C或以上 94%
22°C 39%
16°C 38%
最新
最新
2026-09-25
13°C或以下
$0 交易量
94%
14°C
$0 交易量
16%
15°C
$0 交易量
17%
16°C
$0 交易量
38%
17°C
$0 交易量
22%
18°C
$0 交易量
22%
19°C
$0 交易量
21%
20°C
$0 交易量
38%
21°C
$0 交易量
38%
22°C
$0 交易量
39%
23°C或以上
$0 交易量
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Beijing on September 25 with light southerly winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 18°C amid a post-frontal cooling trend that dropped highs to 23°C on the 24th. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C outcomes, while the balanced 47% probabilities on extremes below 13°C or above 23°C reflect uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, potential shifts in cloud cover, and model spread on boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 15–16°C lows provide context, but the current stable high-pressure influence and lack of strong cold-air advection limit downside risk unless an unexpected northerly surge develops overnight. Traders will watch the next model runs and official updates for any revisions to minimum thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Beijing on September 25 with light southerly winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 18°C amid a post-frontal cooling trend that dropped highs to 23°C on the 24th. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C outcomes, while the balanced 47% probabilities on extremes below 13°C or above 23°C reflect uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, potential shifts in cloud cover, and model spread on boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 15–16°C lows provide context, but the current stable high-pressure influence and lack of strong cold-air advection limit downside risk unless an unexpected northerly surge develops overnight. Traders will watch the next model runs and official updates for any revisions to minimum thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as GFS and ECMWF indicate mostly cloudy conditions over Beijing on September 25 with light southerly winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 18°C amid a post-frontal cooling trend that dropped highs to 23°C on the 24th. This consensus drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 17–19°C outcomes, while the balanced 47% probabilities on extremes below 13°C or above 23°C reflect uncertainty in nocturnal radiative cooling rates, potential shifts in cloud cover, and model spread on boundary-layer mixing. Historical September averages near 15–16°C lows provide context, but the current stable high-pressure influence and lack of strong cold-air advection limit downside risk unless an unexpected northerly surge develops overnight. Traders will watch the next model runs and official updates for any revisions to minimum thresholds before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions