Clear skies and light winds under high pressure have supported strong nocturnal radiative cooling across the Sichuan Basin, driving overnight lows in Chengdu toward 21°C on August 31 according to consensus model guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions. This aligns with late-August climatology, where typical minima range 20–23°C amid decreasing monsoon influence and average dew points near 16–18°C. Recent days showed similar patterns with observed lows of 20–22°C under partly cloudy to clear regimes. The market-implied 96% probability for exactly 21°C reflects trader confidence in stable atmospheric conditions through the night. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected precipitation could limit cooling and push the minimum above this threshold, though current short-range forecasts indicate low odds of such disruption before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月31日成都最低溫度？
8月31日成都最低溫度？
21°C 96%
20°C 8%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
$1,902 交易量
$1,902 交易量
2026-08-31
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 96%
20°C 8%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
$1,902 交易量
$1,902 交易量
2026-08-31
16°C or below
$165 交易量
No
17°C
$202 交易量
No
18°C
$238 交易量
No
19°C
$156 交易量
No
20°C
$157 交易量
No
21°C
$437 交易量
Yes
22°C
$191 交易量
No
23°C
$129 交易量
No
24°C
$75 交易量
No
25°C
$111 交易量
No
26°C or higher
$40 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light winds under high pressure have supported strong nocturnal radiative cooling across the Sichuan Basin, driving overnight lows in Chengdu toward 21°C on August 31 according to consensus model guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions. This aligns with late-August climatology, where typical minima range 20–23°C amid decreasing monsoon influence and average dew points near 16–18°C. Recent days showed similar patterns with observed lows of 20–22°C under partly cloudy to clear regimes. The market-implied 96% probability for exactly 21°C reflects trader confidence in stable atmospheric conditions through the night. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected precipitation could limit cooling and push the minimum above this threshold, though current short-range forecasts indicate low odds of such disruption before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,902結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies and light winds under high pressure have supported strong nocturnal radiative cooling across the Sichuan Basin, driving overnight lows in Chengdu toward 21°C on August 31 according to consensus model guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions. This aligns with late-August climatology, where typical minima range 20–23°C amid decreasing monsoon influence and average dew points near 16–18°C. Recent days showed similar patterns with observed lows of 20–22°C under partly cloudy to clear regimes. The market-implied 96% probability for exactly 21°C reflects trader confidence in stable atmospheric conditions through the night. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected precipitation could limit cooling and push the minimum above this threshold, though current short-range forecasts indicate low odds of such disruption before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,902結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Clear skies and light winds under high pressure have supported strong nocturnal radiative cooling across the Sichuan Basin, driving overnight lows in Chengdu toward 21°C on August 31 according to consensus model guidance from agencies tracking regional conditions. This aligns with late-August climatology, where typical minima range 20–23°C amid decreasing monsoon influence and average dew points near 16–18°C. Recent days showed similar patterns with observed lows of 20–22°C under partly cloudy to clear regimes. The market-implied 96% probability for exactly 21°C reflects trader confidence in stable atmospheric conditions through the night. A sudden increase in cloud cover or unexpected precipitation could limit cooling and push the minimum above this threshold, though current short-range forecasts indicate low odds of such disruption before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions