Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 36–37°C in Madrid on September 5, 2026, with increasing afternoon cloud cover and southeasterly winds limiting further warming after several days above 37°C. This positions 37°C as the market leader at 42% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 38°C, as ensembles show modest spread from variable cloud thickness and minor steering differences. Historical September 5 maxima average 28.9°C with a record of 37.4°C, so current conditions sit well above normal but below peak potential. Traders weigh the latest model runs against persistent high pressure, with the next official updates from national meteorological services likely to refine land-surface heating and boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月5日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 44%
37°C 41%
40°C 17%
39°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
33°C或以下
3%
34°C
4%
35°C
5%
36°C
12%
37°C
41%
38°C
44%
39°C
13%
40°C
17%
41°C
5%
42°C
2%
43°C或更高
2%
38°C 44%
37°C 41%
40°C 17%
39°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-09-05
33°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
34°C
$0 交易量
4%
35°C
$259 交易量
5%
36°C
$138 交易量
12%
37°C
$96 交易量
41%
38°C
$57 交易量
44%
39°C
$15 交易量
13%
40°C
$0 交易量
17%
41°C
$0 交易量
5%
42°C
$5 交易量
2%
43°C或更高
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 36–37°C in Madrid on September 5, 2026, with increasing afternoon cloud cover and southeasterly winds limiting further warming after several days above 37°C. This positions 37°C as the market leader at 42% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 38°C, as ensembles show modest spread from variable cloud thickness and minor steering differences. Historical September 5 maxima average 28.9°C with a record of 37.4°C, so current conditions sit well above normal but below peak potential. Traders weigh the latest model runs against persistent high pressure, with the next official updates from national meteorological services likely to refine land-surface heating and boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$570結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 36–37°C in Madrid on September 5, 2026, with increasing afternoon cloud cover and southeasterly winds limiting further warming after several days above 37°C. This positions 37°C as the market leader at 42% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 38°C, as ensembles show modest spread from variable cloud thickness and minor steering differences. Historical September 5 maxima average 28.9°C with a record of 37.4°C, so current conditions sit well above normal but below peak potential. Traders weigh the latest model runs against persistent high pressure, with the next official updates from national meteorological services likely to refine land-surface heating and boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$570結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETForecast models from GFS and ECMWF indicate a high near 36–37°C in Madrid on September 5, 2026, with increasing afternoon cloud cover and southeasterly winds limiting further warming after several days above 37°C. This positions 37°C as the market leader at 42% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 38°C, as ensembles show modest spread from variable cloud thickness and minor steering differences. Historical September 5 maxima average 28.9°C with a record of 37.4°C, so current conditions sit well above normal but below peak potential. Traders weigh the latest model runs against persistent high pressure, with the next official updates from national meteorological services likely to refine land-surface heating and boundary-layer details ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions