**Trader consensus at 99.5% for a minimum of 24°C or below on September 5 reflects Madrid’s established early-September climatology, where average overnight lows reach 17.1°C and the highest recorded daily minimum stands at 22.4°C (2016).** Recent 2026 observations through early September showed nighttime temperatures in the 20–22°C range amid continued warm daytime highs near 34–35°C, consistent with typical post-summer radiative cooling under clear skies and moderate winds. Official monitoring data confirm that sustained minima above 24°C would require an unprecedented nocturnal heat anomaly rarely seen in the 1920–2026 record. While model runs can shift with sudden warm-air advection, the probability of breaching this threshold remains negligible given current synoptic patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月5日馬德裏最低氣溫？
24°C或以下 100%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$894 交易量
$894 交易量
2026-09-05
24°C或以下
是
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C或更高
否
24°C或以下 100%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$894 交易量
$894 交易量
2026-09-05
24°C或以下
$311 交易量
是
25°C
$359 交易量
否
26°C
$64 交易量
否
27°C
$20 交易量
否
28°C
$20 交易量
否
29°C
$20 交易量
否
30°C
$20 交易量
否
31°C
$20 交易量
否
32°C
$20 交易量
否
33°C
$20 交易量
否
34°C或更高
$20 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.5% for a minimum of 24°C or below on September 5 reflects Madrid’s established early-September climatology, where average overnight lows reach 17.1°C and the highest recorded daily minimum stands at 22.4°C (2016).** Recent 2026 observations through early September showed nighttime temperatures in the 20–22°C range amid continued warm daytime highs near 34–35°C, consistent with typical post-summer radiative cooling under clear skies and moderate winds. Official monitoring data confirm that sustained minima above 24°C would require an unprecedented nocturnal heat anomaly rarely seen in the 1920–2026 record. While model runs can shift with sudden warm-air advection, the probability of breaching this threshold remains negligible given current synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$894結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 99.5% for a minimum of 24°C or below on September 5 reflects Madrid’s established early-September climatology, where average overnight lows reach 17.1°C and the highest recorded daily minimum stands at 22.4°C (2016).** Recent 2026 observations through early September showed nighttime temperatures in the 20–22°C range amid continued warm daytime highs near 34–35°C, consistent with typical post-summer radiative cooling under clear skies and moderate winds. Official monitoring data confirm that sustained minima above 24°C would require an unprecedented nocturnal heat anomaly rarely seen in the 1920–2026 record. While model runs can shift with sudden warm-air advection, the probability of breaching this threshold remains negligible given current synoptic patterns.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$894結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
**Trader consensus at 99.5% for a minimum of 24°C or below on September 5 reflects Madrid’s established early-September climatology, where average overnight lows reach 17.1°C and the highest recorded daily minimum stands at 22.4°C (2016).** Recent 2026 observations through early September showed nighttime temperatures in the 20–22°C range amid continued warm daytime highs near 34–35°C, consistent with typical post-summer radiative cooling under clear skies and moderate winds. Official monitoring data confirm that sustained minima above 24°C would require an unprecedented nocturnal heat anomaly rarely seen in the 1920–2026 record. While model runs can shift with sudden warm-air advection, the probability of breaching this threshold remains negligible given current synoptic patterns.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions