Latest high-resolution forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak of 38°C on September 3 under strong high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow maximum solar heating. Daytime temperatures are projected to climb steadily from morning lows near 20°C, with the warmest readings expected in the late afternoon when insolation peaks. These conditions align with the market's dominant 38°C outcome at 69.5% implied probability, while the 16.5% on 39°C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and slight model spread. Recent observations confirm stable anticyclonic flow with minimal cloud cover, supporting the current trader consensus ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月3日馬德裏氣溫最高？
38°C 70%
39°C 16%
37°C 12%
40°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
12%
38°C
70%
39°C
16%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 70%
39°C 16%
37°C 12%
40°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
33°C or below
$192 交易量
<1%
34°C
$224 交易量
<1%
35°C
$737 交易量
1%
36°C
$705 交易量
2%
37°C
$1,482 交易量
12%
38°C
$2,410 交易量
70%
39°C
$1,721 交易量
16%
40°C
$529 交易量
3%
41°C
$293 交易量
1%
42°C
$355 交易量
<1%
43°C or higher
$306 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest high-resolution forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak of 38°C on September 3 under strong high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow maximum solar heating. Daytime temperatures are projected to climb steadily from morning lows near 20°C, with the warmest readings expected in the late afternoon when insolation peaks. These conditions align with the market's dominant 38°C outcome at 69.5% implied probability, while the 16.5% on 39°C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and slight model spread. Recent observations confirm stable anticyclonic flow with minimal cloud cover, supporting the current trader consensus ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$8,954結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest high-resolution forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak of 38°C on September 3 under strong high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow maximum solar heating. Daytime temperatures are projected to climb steadily from morning lows near 20°C, with the warmest readings expected in the late afternoon when insolation peaks. These conditions align with the market's dominant 38°C outcome at 69.5% implied probability, while the 16.5% on 39°C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and slight model spread. Recent observations confirm stable anticyclonic flow with minimal cloud cover, supporting the current trader consensus ahead of final verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$8,954結束日期
2026-09-03市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest high-resolution forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF consensus point to a peak of 38°C on September 3 under strong high pressure, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds that limit mixing and allow maximum solar heating. Daytime temperatures are projected to climb steadily from morning lows near 20°C, with the warmest readings expected in the late afternoon when insolation peaks. These conditions align with the market's dominant 38°C outcome at 69.5% implied probability, while the 16.5% on 39°C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and slight model spread. Recent observations confirm stable anticyclonic flow with minimal cloud cover, supporting the current trader consensus ahead of final verification.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions