Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$21,966 交易量
$21,966 交易量
2026-11-02
凱莉·莫里森（民主黨）
95%
Tyler Bass（共和黨）
6%
$21,966 交易量
$21,966 交易量
2026-11-02
凱莉·莫里森（民主黨）
$12,428 交易量
95%
Tyler Bass（共和黨）
$9,538 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$21,966結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,966結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETKelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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