Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive 66 percent share, facing Democrat Courtney McClain in the November general election for South Carolina's 4th congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including a 16.5-point Trump victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the district's voting patterns and limited crossover appeal. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout anomalies could narrow the gap, though historical base rates suggest such reversals remain low-probability events in this district.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$43,734 交易量
$43,734 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
93%
民主黨
7%
$43,734 交易量
$43,734 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$20,131 交易量
93%
民主黨
$23,603 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive 66 percent share, facing Democrat Courtney McClain in the November general election for South Carolina's 4th congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including a 16.5-point Trump victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the district's voting patterns and limited crossover appeal. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout anomalies could narrow the gap, though historical base rates suggest such reversals remain low-probability events in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$43,734結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive 66 percent share, facing Democrat Courtney McClain in the November general election for South Carolina's 4th congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including a 16.5-point Trump victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the district's voting patterns and limited crossover appeal. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout anomalies could narrow the gap, though historical base rates suggest such reversals remain low-probability events in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$43,734結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETIncumbent Republican William Timmons secured the party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive 66 percent share, facing Democrat Courtney McClain in the November general election for South Carolina's 4th congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles, including a 16.5-point Trump victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the district's voting patterns and limited crossover appeal. Trader consensus at 92.5 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or major disruptions since the primaries. Late developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout anomalies could narrow the gap, though historical base rates suggest such reversals remain low-probability events in this district.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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