Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight model recently surged to the top of Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a 1679 Elo score in blind frontend coding and agentic build evaluations, outpacing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. This late-July breakthrough tightened the race for second place among labs whose latest releases sit within a narrow Elo band on multi-step web tasks. Traders assign Moonshot roughly 46% odds of finishing second by month-end, followed by Alibaba’s Qwen series at 25% and Anthropic at 14%, reflecting ongoing Chinese lab momentum in large-scale MoE architectures versus incremental U.S. updates. Key swing factors include any new model drops or leaderboard volatility before the August 31 snapshot, as small capability edges in React scaffolding, debugging, and tool-use workflows can reorder lab rankings quickly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Moonshot 49.1%
阿里巴巴 22.3%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 8.8%
$57,563 交易量
$57,563 交易量
2026-08-31
Moonshot
49%
阿里巴巴
22%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
9%
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
騰訊
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
小米
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Moonshot 49.1%
阿里巴巴 22.3%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 8.8%
$57,563 交易量
$57,563 交易量
2026-08-31
Moonshot
$15,088 交易量
49%
阿里巴巴
$2,075 交易量
22%
Anthropic
$23,021 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$7,263 交易量
9%
$1,517 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$1,622 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$1,123 交易量
<1%
Poolside
$574 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$772 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$574 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$776 交易量
<1%
Meta
$611 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$625 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$611 交易量
<1%
小米
$652 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$659 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight model recently surged to the top of Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a 1679 Elo score in blind frontend coding and agentic build evaluations, outpacing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. This late-July breakthrough tightened the race for second place among labs whose latest releases sit within a narrow Elo band on multi-step web tasks. Traders assign Moonshot roughly 46% odds of finishing second by month-end, followed by Alibaba’s Qwen series at 25% and Anthropic at 14%, reflecting ongoing Chinese lab momentum in large-scale MoE architectures versus incremental U.S. updates. Key swing factors include any new model drops or leaderboard volatility before the August 31 snapshot, as small capability edges in React scaffolding, debugging, and tool-use workflows can reorder lab rankings quickly.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
交易量
$57,563結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:25 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight model recently surged to the top of Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a 1679 Elo score in blind frontend coding and agentic build evaluations, outpacing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. This late-July breakthrough tightened the race for second place among labs whose latest releases sit within a narrow Elo band on multi-step web tasks. Traders assign Moonshot roughly 46% odds of finishing second by month-end, followed by Alibaba’s Qwen series at 25% and Anthropic at 14%, reflecting ongoing Chinese lab momentum in large-scale MoE architectures versus incremental U.S. updates. Key swing factors include any new model drops or leaderboard volatility before the August 31 snapshot, as small capability edges in React scaffolding, debugging, and tool-use workflows can reorder lab rankings quickly.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$57,563結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 8:25 PM ETMoonshot’s Kimi K3 open-weight model recently surged to the top of Arena.ai’s Code Arena WebDev leaderboard with a 1679 Elo score in blind frontend coding and agentic build evaluations, outpacing Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol. This late-July breakthrough tightened the race for second place among labs whose latest releases sit within a narrow Elo band on multi-step web tasks. Traders assign Moonshot roughly 46% odds of finishing second by month-end, followed by Alibaba’s Qwen series at 25% and Anthropic at 14%, reflecting ongoing Chinese lab momentum in large-scale MoE architectures versus incremental U.S. updates. Key swing factors include any new model drops or leaderboard volatility before the August 31 snapshot, as small capability edges in React scaffolding, debugging, and tool-use workflows can reorder lab rankings quickly.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions