Trader consensus has locked in a 98.9% implied probability for "Up" on tech layoffs in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, fueled by layoff trackers like Layoffs.fyi reporting a record 78,000–81,000 job cuts across 80+ companies, more than doubling prior-quarter figures. This surge stems from AI-driven restructuring—nearly 48% of cuts explicitly tied to automation—with major actions at Meta (8,000 roles), Microsoft (7,000), and Oracle (thousands) to redirect capital toward artificial intelligence infrastructure amid slowing growth in legacy operations. March alone saw 45,000+ announcements, the worst month since 2024. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect ironclad confidence, resolution hinges on final BLS JOLTS data for the information sector; a methodological discrepancy undercounting separations could theoretically shift outcomes, though the scale makes reversal improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Up
$9,429 交易量
$9,429 交易量
2026-05-05
Up
$9,429 交易量
$9,429 交易量
2026-05-05
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus has locked in a 98.9% implied probability for "Up" on tech layoffs in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, fueled by layoff trackers like Layoffs.fyi reporting a record 78,000–81,000 job cuts across 80+ companies, more than doubling prior-quarter figures. This surge stems from AI-driven restructuring—nearly 48% of cuts explicitly tied to automation—with major actions at Meta (8,000 roles), Microsoft (7,000), and Oracle (thousands) to redirect capital toward artificial intelligence infrastructure amid slowing growth in legacy operations. March alone saw 45,000+ announcements, the worst month since 2024. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect ironclad confidence, resolution hinges on final BLS JOLTS data for the information sector; a methodological discrepancy undercounting separations could theoretically shift outcomes, though the scale makes reversal improbable.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Mar 20, 2026, 5:05 PM ET
交易量
$9,429結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
Mar 20, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: Up
無爭議
最終結果: Up
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus has locked in a 98.9% implied probability for "Up" on tech layoffs in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, fueled by layoff trackers like Layoffs.fyi reporting a record 78,000–81,000 job cuts across 80+ companies, more than doubling prior-quarter figures. This surge stems from AI-driven restructuring—nearly 48% of cuts explicitly tied to automation—with major actions at Meta (8,000 roles), Microsoft (7,000), and Oracle (thousands) to redirect capital toward artificial intelligence infrastructure amid slowing growth in legacy operations. March alone saw 45,000+ announcements, the worst month since 2024. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect ironclad confidence, resolution hinges on final BLS JOLTS data for the information sector; a methodological discrepancy undercounting separations could theoretically shift outcomes, though the scale makes reversal improbable.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q1 2026 (Jan-Mar) than in Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 (115,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in Q4 2025 than in Q1 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
The quarterly totals will be calculated as the sum of the relevant monthly data points within each respective quarter.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for March 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If not all relevant data points are released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, data published up until this point will be used to determine the Q1 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$9,429結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
Mar 20, 2026, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: Up
無爭議
最終結果: Up
Trader consensus has locked in a 98.9% implied probability for "Up" on tech layoffs in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025, fueled by layoff trackers like Layoffs.fyi reporting a record 78,000–81,000 job cuts across 80+ companies, more than doubling prior-quarter figures. This surge stems from AI-driven restructuring—nearly 48% of cuts explicitly tied to automation—with major actions at Meta (8,000 roles), Microsoft (7,000), and Oracle (thousands) to redirect capital toward artificial intelligence infrastructure amid slowing growth in legacy operations. March alone saw 45,000+ announcements, the worst month since 2024. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect ironclad confidence, resolution hinges on final BLS JOLTS data for the information sector; a methodological discrepancy undercounting separations could theoretically shift outcomes, though the scale makes reversal improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions