Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in Utah's 4th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reinforced by redistricting that preserved a strong GOP tilt after the 2024 presidential results showed a 32-point margin. As the incumbent who secured the Republican nomination with over 78% at the state convention, Kennedy benefits from unified party support, substantial fundraising exceeding $800,000, and uncontested primaries on both sides. Jonny Larsen, the Democratic nominee and Marine veteran, faces structural barriers in a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major late-campaign disruption such as a candidate health event or national political shift before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$42,280 交易量
$42,280 交易量
2026-11-02
麥克·甘迺迪（共和黨）
95%
Jonny Larsen（民主黨）
4%
$42,280 交易量
$42,280 交易量
2026-11-02
麥克·甘迺迪（共和黨）
$16,189 交易量
95%
Jonny Larsen（民主黨）
$26,091 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in Utah's 4th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reinforced by redistricting that preserved a strong GOP tilt after the 2024 presidential results showed a 32-point margin. As the incumbent who secured the Republican nomination with over 78% at the state convention, Kennedy benefits from unified party support, substantial fundraising exceeding $800,000, and uncontested primaries on both sides. Jonny Larsen, the Democratic nominee and Marine veteran, faces structural barriers in a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major late-campaign disruption such as a candidate health event or national political shift before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$42,280結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in Utah's 4th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reinforced by redistricting that preserved a strong GOP tilt after the 2024 presidential results showed a 32-point margin. As the incumbent who secured the Republican nomination with over 78% at the state convention, Kennedy benefits from unified party support, substantial fundraising exceeding $800,000, and uncontested primaries on both sides. Jonny Larsen, the Democratic nominee and Marine veteran, faces structural barriers in a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major late-campaign disruption such as a candidate health event or national political shift before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,280結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETMike Kennedy holds a commanding lead in Utah's 4th Congressional District race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reinforced by redistricting that preserved a strong GOP tilt after the 2024 presidential results showed a 32-point margin. As the incumbent who secured the Republican nomination with over 78% at the state convention, Kennedy benefits from unified party support, substantial fundraising exceeding $800,000, and uncontested primaries on both sides. Jonny Larsen, the Democratic nominee and Marine veteran, faces structural barriers in a seat rated solid or safe Republican by Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with limited volatility expected absent a major late-campaign disruption such as a candidate health event or national political shift before the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions