Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 55.5% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On by April's end, driven by Claude 3 Opus's sustained lead in recent Elo rankings (around 1280), edging out OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo (1275). OpenAI holds 41.5% odds amid anticipation for GPT-4 refinements, while xAI's 39% reflects Grok-1.5's coding gains and Elon Musk's hype. Amazon's 41% surge ties to Bedrock-hosted model optimizations, and Google's 33.5% stems from Gemini 1.5 Pro benchmarks. Key catalysts include leaderboard volatility from user votes and unreleased tweaks, with no major launches confirmed before deadline—timelines often slip in AI race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 55%
Amazon 41%
xAI 37%
OpenAI 25%
$14,589 交易量
$14,589 交易量

Anthropic
55%

Amazon
41%

xAI
37%

OpenAI
25%

Mistral
24%

Z.ai
24%

Moonshot
23%

Alibaba
23%

Baidu
23%

ByteDance
22%

Meituan
22%

DeepSeek
21%

28%
Anthropic 55%
Amazon 41%
xAI 37%
OpenAI 25%
$14,589 交易量
$14,589 交易量

Anthropic
55%

Amazon
41%

xAI
37%

OpenAI
25%

Mistral
24%

Z.ai
24%

Moonshot
23%

Alibaba
23%

Baidu
23%

ByteDance
22%

Meituan
22%

DeepSeek
21%

28%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 55.5% implied probability for topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with Style Control On by April's end, driven by Claude 3 Opus's sustained lead in recent Elo rankings (around 1280), edging out OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo (1275). OpenAI holds 41.5% odds amid anticipation for GPT-4 refinements, while xAI's 39% reflects Grok-1.5's coding gains and Elon Musk's hype. Amazon's 41% surge ties to Bedrock-hosted model optimizations, and Google's 33.5% stems from Gemini 1.5 Pro benchmarks. Key catalysts include leaderboard volatility from user votes and unreleased tweaks, with no major launches confirmed before deadline—timelines often slip in AI race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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