Trader sentiment on the #2 AI model spot by April's end heavily favors Anthropic at 59.5% implied probability, driven by Claude 3 Sonnet's dominant performance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard, where it excels in mimicking specific writing styles amid blind user votes. Moonshot AI's Kimi model trails closely at 38%, boosted by aggressive updates emphasizing creative control, while Google (Gemini 1.5 Pro release April 12), Mistral, xAI (Grok-1.5 launch late April), and Baidu (Ernie 4.0 rollout) hover around 36-37.5% on recent leaderboard surges and competitive Chinese lab momentum. Tight clustering reflects volatile Elo shifts from new evals, with OpenAI likely locking #1 via GPT-4 Turbo, underscoring style control's niche emphasis on nuanced generation over raw capability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Moonshot 76%
Mistral 75%
Baidu 72%
Z.ai 71%

Moonshot
76%

Mistral
75%

Baidu
72%

Z.ai
71%

DeepSeek
68%

Alibaba
66%

Amazon
62%

Anthropic
59%

36%

xAI
36%

ByteDance
31%

OpenAI
30%

Meituan
30%
Moonshot 76%
Mistral 75%
Baidu 72%
Z.ai 71%

Moonshot
76%

Mistral
75%

Baidu
72%

Z.ai
71%

DeepSeek
68%

Alibaba
66%

Amazon
62%

Anthropic
59%

36%

xAI
36%

ByteDance
31%

OpenAI
30%

Meituan
30%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the #2 AI model spot by April's end heavily favors Anthropic at 59.5% implied probability, driven by Claude 3 Sonnet's dominant performance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Style Control leaderboard, where it excels in mimicking specific writing styles amid blind user votes. Moonshot AI's Kimi model trails closely at 38%, boosted by aggressive updates emphasizing creative control, while Google (Gemini 1.5 Pro release April 12), Mistral, xAI (Grok-1.5 launch late April), and Baidu (Ernie 4.0 rollout) hover around 36-37.5% on recent leaderboard surges and competitive Chinese lab momentum. Tight clustering reflects volatile Elo shifts from new evals, with OpenAI likely locking #1 via GPT-4 Turbo, underscoring style control's niche emphasis on nuanced generation over raw capability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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