Ukrainian forces have stabilized and advanced in the Lyman sector through Operation Vivaldi, reclaiming 150–240 square kilometers north of the city since May 2026 and pushing Russian units back across the Chornyi Zherebets River. This counteroffensive disrupted Russian attempts to form a northern pincer toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, blunting prior infiltration and small-unit assaults by elements of the 20th and 25th Russian armies. Russian progress remains limited to incremental pressure via drone strikes and motorcycle infantry, with no confirmed consolidation inside Lyman itself per ISW mapping. Trader assessments reflect these battlefield shifts alongside ongoing attrition, personnel shortages on both sides, and the absence of major Russian mechanized breakthroughs in recent months. Scheduled developments in the Donbas could influence momentum before year-end deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$3,073,180 交易量
9月30日
2%
12月31日
7%
$3,073,180 交易量
9月30日
2%
12月31日
7%
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jun 24, 2026, 8:14 PM ET
The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png
Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg
Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ukrainian forces have stabilized and advanced in the Lyman sector through Operation Vivaldi, reclaiming 150–240 square kilometers north of the city since May 2026 and pushing Russian units back across the Chornyi Zherebets River. This counteroffensive disrupted Russian attempts to form a northern pincer toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, blunting prior infiltration and small-unit assaults by elements of the 20th and 25th Russian armies. Russian progress remains limited to incremental pressure via drone strikes and motorcycle infantry, with no confirmed consolidation inside Lyman itself per ISW mapping. Trader assessments reflect these battlefield shifts alongside ongoing attrition, personnel shortages on both sides, and the absence of major Russian mechanized breakthroughs in recent months. Scheduled developments in the Donbas could influence momentum before year-end deadlines.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions