Tesla's persistent failure to secure California DMV permits for unsupervised autonomous testing or CPUC authorization for paid robotaxi passenger service drives the 97.1% market-implied odds against a launch by June 30. The company holds only entry-level approvals requiring safety drivers, has logged zero autonomous test miles in recent years, and submitted no applications for the multi-step driverless permits needed. With just days remaining before the deadline, trader consensus reflects these regulatory barriers and historical delays in scaling Full Self-Driving capabilities beyond supervised operations in the Bay Area. While sudden regulatory intervention or expedited approvals remain theoretically possible, the absence of required data thresholds and certification processes makes such outcomes highly unlikely in the timeframe.