The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於48% 機率
$12,651 交易量
$12,651 交易量
2026-12-30
48% 機率
$12,651 交易量
$12,651 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
市場開放時間： May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
交易量
$12,651結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$12,651結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETThe Philippine Senate's narrow division and entrenched alliances with Vice President Sara Duterte underpin the market's near-even pricing on conviction. The House transmitted articles of impeachment for the second time in May 2026 on charges including betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and culpable constitutional violations tied to confidential funds and threats. The trial opened July 6 and reached its 26th day in mid-September amid procedural disputes over whether the two-thirds threshold of 16 votes applies to all 24 senators or only those able to participate, given detentions of Senators Estrada, Marcoleta, and dela Rosa. Recent amici curiae testimony from former Supreme Court justices on September 16 has highlighted this unresolved counting question, while Duterte's defense challenges evidence and the prosecution pushes forward on multiple articles. Developments such as Senate vote shifts, further absences, or rulings clarifying the threshold could alter the balance before the December 31, 2026 resolution window closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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