Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors PP–DB to finish third in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, mirroring consistent polling averages where Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former president Rumen Radev, leads at 28–33%, followed by GERB–SDS at 19–23%, and PP–DB at 11–13%. Recent surveys like CAM (April 14) and Sova Harris (April 6) reinforce this order, with DPS close behind at 9–11%, explaining its 15% implied probability. This eighth snap vote since 2021 under proportional representation reflects voter fatigue and fragmentation, amplified by PB's anti-establishment surge amid government collapse last December. Crackdowns on vote-buying and low turnout expectations (around 51%) add uncertainty, but polls show stability ahead of election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PP–DB 78%
DPS 15%
复兴党 5.6%
GERB-SDS 1.4%
$79,508 交易量
$79,508 交易量
2026-04-19
PP–DB
78%
DPS
15%
复兴党
6%
GERB-SDS
1%
MECh
<1%
BSP
<1%
ITN
<1%
PB
<1%
APS
<1%
Velichie
<1%
PP–DB 78%
DPS 15%
复兴党 5.6%
GERB-SDS 1.4%
$79,508 交易量
$79,508 交易量
2026-04-19
PP–DB
$23,579 交易量
78%
DPS
$12,583 交易量
15%
复兴党
$3,033 交易量
6%
GERB-SDS
$9,484 交易量
1%
MECh
$3,238 交易量
<1%
BSP
$20,073 交易量
<1%
ITN
$2,065 交易量
<1%
PB
$1,575 交易量
<1%
APS
$2,076 交易量
<1%
Velichie
$1,802 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors PP–DB to finish third in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, mirroring consistent polling averages where Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former president Rumen Radev, leads at 28–33%, followed by GERB–SDS at 19–23%, and PP–DB at 11–13%. Recent surveys like CAM (April 14) and Sova Harris (April 6) reinforce this order, with DPS close behind at 9–11%, explaining its 15% implied probability. This eighth snap vote since 2021 under proportional representation reflects voter fatigue and fragmentation, amplified by PB's anti-establishment surge amid government collapse last December. Crackdowns on vote-buying and low turnout expectations (around 51%) add uncertainty, but polls show stability ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 12:21 PM ET
交易量
$79,508结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors PP–DB to finish third in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, mirroring consistent polling averages where Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former president Rumen Radev, leads at 28–33%, followed by GERB–SDS at 19–23%, and PP–DB at 11–13%. Recent surveys like CAM (April 14) and Sova Harris (April 6) reinforce this order, with DPS close behind at 9–11%, explaining its 15% implied probability. This eighth snap vote since 2021 under proportional representation reflects voter fatigue and fragmentation, amplified by PB's anti-establishment surge amid government collapse last December. Crackdowns on vote-buying and low turnout expectations (around 51%) add uncertainty, but polls show stability ahead of election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
交易量
$79,508结束日期
2026-04-19市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 12:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors PP–DB to finish third in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, mirroring consistent polling averages where Progressive Bulgaria (PB), led by former president Rumen Radev, leads at 28–33%, followed by GERB–SDS at 19–23%, and PP–DB at 11–13%. Recent surveys like CAM (April 14) and Sova Harris (April 6) reinforce this order, with DPS close behind at 9–11%, explaining its 15% implied probability. This eighth snap vote since 2021 under proportional representation reflects voter fatigue and fragmentation, amplified by PB's anti-establishment surge amid government collapse last December. Crackdowns on vote-buying and low turnout expectations (around 51%) add uncertainty, but polls show stability ahead of election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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