Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and DeSaulnier secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a race rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Recent primary activity on June 2, 2026, featured the incumbent alongside limited Republican challengers and other Democratic contenders, reinforcing expectations of continued party control. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include an unexpected national political shift, a major scandal involving the nominee, or unusual turnout patterns, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to move probabilities meaningfully.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$18,454 交易量
$18,454 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$18,454 交易量
$18,454 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$11,750 交易量
95%
共和党
$6,705 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and DeSaulnier secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a race rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Recent primary activity on June 2, 2026, featured the incumbent alongside limited Republican challengers and other Democratic contenders, reinforcing expectations of continued party control. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include an unexpected national political shift, a major scandal involving the nominee, or unusual turnout patterns, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to move probabilities meaningfully.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$18,454结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and DeSaulnier secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a race rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Recent primary activity on June 2, 2026, featured the incumbent alongside limited Republican challengers and other Democratic contenders, reinforcing expectations of continued party control. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include an unexpected national political shift, a major scandal involving the nominee, or unusual turnout patterns, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to move probabilities meaningfully.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$18,454结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier holds a commanding position in California's 10th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory. The district's voter registration heavily favors Democrats, and DeSaulnier secured reelection in 2024 by a wide margin in a race rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Recent primary activity on June 2, 2026, featured the incumbent alongside limited Republican challengers and other Democratic contenders, reinforcing expectations of continued party control. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include an unexpected national political shift, a major scandal involving the nominee, or unusual turnout patterns, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established partisan baseline to move probabilities meaningfully.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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