California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in trader consensus around the general election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin and Republican Sam Gallucci after the June 2026 primary. Incumbency patterns, voter registration advantages, and historical margins in this Ventura County area have sustained high implied probabilities for a Democratic hold. Recent primary vote shares and the absence of major shifts in local polling or endorsements reinforce the current positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a late-breaking scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters, though such developments would need to overcome the district's structural baseline to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$31,374 交易量
$31,374 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$31,374 交易量
$31,374 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$15,967 交易量
94%
共和党
$15,408 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in trader consensus around the general election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin and Republican Sam Gallucci after the June 2026 primary. Incumbency patterns, voter registration advantages, and historical margins in this Ventura County area have sustained high implied probabilities for a Democratic hold. Recent primary vote shares and the absence of major shifts in local polling or endorsements reinforce the current positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a late-breaking scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters, though such developments would need to overcome the district's structural baseline to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$31,374结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in trader consensus around the general election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin and Republican Sam Gallucci after the June 2026 primary. Incumbency patterns, voter registration advantages, and historical margins in this Ventura County area have sustained high implied probabilities for a Democratic hold. Recent primary vote shares and the absence of major shifts in local polling or endorsements reinforce the current positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a late-breaking scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters, though such developments would need to overcome the district's structural baseline to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$31,374结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 26th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic-leaning seat, reflected in trader consensus around the general election matchup between Democrat Jacqui Irwin and Republican Sam Gallucci after the June 2026 primary. Incumbency patterns, voter registration advantages, and historical margins in this Ventura County area have sustained high implied probabilities for a Democratic hold. Recent primary vote shares and the absence of major shifts in local polling or endorsements reinforce the current positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unusually strong national Republican wave, a late-breaking scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout among conservative voters, though such developments would need to overcome the district's structural baseline to alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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