The strong Democratic lean of California's 26th congressional district, combined with the June 2 primary results, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November general election. Retiring incumbent Julia Brownley leaves an open seat, but state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced as the leading Democrat, positioning the party favorably against the Republican nominee under the state's top-two system. Forecasters have consistently rated the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's structural advantages and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance. A Republican victory would require an unusually favorable national environment or turnout surge exceeding historical patterns. Late developments such as major scandals or health events involving either nominee remain the primary variables that could still influence outcomes before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,446 交易量
$29,446 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$29,446 交易量
$29,446 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$15,836 交易量
94%
共和党
$13,609 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 26th congressional district, combined with the June 2 primary results, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November general election. Retiring incumbent Julia Brownley leaves an open seat, but state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced as the leading Democrat, positioning the party favorably against the Republican nominee under the state's top-two system. Forecasters have consistently rated the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's structural advantages and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance. A Republican victory would require an unusually favorable national environment or turnout surge exceeding historical patterns. Late developments such as major scandals or health events involving either nominee remain the primary variables that could still influence outcomes before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$29,446结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 26th congressional district, combined with the June 2 primary results, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November general election. Retiring incumbent Julia Brownley leaves an open seat, but state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced as the leading Democrat, positioning the party favorably against the Republican nominee under the state's top-two system. Forecasters have consistently rated the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's structural advantages and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance. A Republican victory would require an unusually favorable national environment or turnout surge exceeding historical patterns. Late developments such as major scandals or health events involving either nominee remain the primary variables that could still influence outcomes before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,446结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 26th congressional district, combined with the June 2 primary results, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November general election. Retiring incumbent Julia Brownley leaves an open seat, but state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin advanced as the leading Democrat, positioning the party favorably against the Republican nominee under the state's top-two system. Forecasters have consistently rated the race solid or safe Democratic, reflecting the district's structural advantages and limited recent shifts that would alter the balance. A Republican victory would require an unusually favorable national environment or turnout surge exceeding historical patterns. Late developments such as major scandals or health events involving either nominee remain the primary variables that could still influence outcomes before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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