The 26th Congressional District of California maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, with the June 2 primary advancing state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring incumbent Julia Brownley. Republican Sam Gallucci advanced as the general-election opponent but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments that would alter the balance, such as major national shifts or candidate-specific events within the resolution window. A late scandal, health issue, or dramatic change in the broader political environment could still narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$29,446 交易量
$29,446 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$29,446 交易量
$29,446 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$15,836 交易量
94%
共和党
$13,609 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 26th Congressional District of California maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, with the June 2 primary advancing state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring incumbent Julia Brownley. Republican Sam Gallucci advanced as the general-election opponent but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments that would alter the balance, such as major national shifts or candidate-specific events within the resolution window. A late scandal, health issue, or dramatic change in the broader political environment could still narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$29,446结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 26th Congressional District of California maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, with the June 2 primary advancing state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring incumbent Julia Brownley. Republican Sam Gallucci advanced as the general-election opponent but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments that would alter the balance, such as major national shifts or candidate-specific events within the resolution window. A late scandal, health issue, or dramatic change in the broader political environment could still narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,446结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 26th Congressional District of California maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent electoral history, with the June 2 primary advancing state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin as the Democratic nominee to succeed retiring incumbent Julia Brownley. Republican Sam Gallucci advanced as the general-election opponent but faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic outcome above 90 percent aligns with these fundamentals and the absence of recent developments that would alter the balance, such as major national shifts or candidate-specific events within the resolution window. A late scandal, health issue, or dramatic change in the broader political environment could still narrow the margin, though such factors have not materialized to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题