The June 2026 top-two primary in California's 29th Congressional District advanced two Democrats—incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas and challenger Angélica María Dueñas—while eliminating the sole Republican, Rudy Melendez, who finished third. This outcome in a San Fernando Valley district with a D+20 partisan lean and consistent Democratic registration advantage has produced the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97%. Multiple forecasters rate the November 3 general election as Safe or Solid Democratic based on the district's voting history and Rivas's prior 70% general-election margin. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as major scandals or legal disqualifications affecting both Democratic candidates before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$30,702 交易量
$30,702 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
3%
$30,702 交易量
$30,702 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$13,204 交易量
97%
共和党
$17,498 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2026 top-two primary in California's 29th Congressional District advanced two Democrats—incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas and challenger Angélica María Dueñas—while eliminating the sole Republican, Rudy Melendez, who finished third. This outcome in a San Fernando Valley district with a D+20 partisan lean and consistent Democratic registration advantage has produced the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97%. Multiple forecasters rate the November 3 general election as Safe or Solid Democratic based on the district's voting history and Rivas's prior 70% general-election margin. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as major scandals or legal disqualifications affecting both Democratic candidates before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$30,702结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2026 top-two primary in California's 29th Congressional District advanced two Democrats—incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas and challenger Angélica María Dueñas—while eliminating the sole Republican, Rudy Melendez, who finished third. This outcome in a San Fernando Valley district with a D+20 partisan lean and consistent Democratic registration advantage has produced the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97%. Multiple forecasters rate the November 3 general election as Safe or Solid Democratic based on the district's voting history and Rivas's prior 70% general-election margin. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as major scandals or legal disqualifications affecting both Democratic candidates before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,702结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThe June 2026 top-two primary in California's 29th Congressional District advanced two Democrats—incumbent Rep. Luz Rivas and challenger Angélica María Dueñas—while eliminating the sole Republican, Rudy Melendez, who finished third. This outcome in a San Fernando Valley district with a D+20 partisan lean and consistent Democratic registration advantage has produced the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 97%. Multiple forecasters rate the November 3 general election as Safe or Solid Democratic based on the district's voting history and Rivas's prior 70% general-election margin. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as major scandals or legal disqualifications affecting both Democratic candidates before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题