The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and a strongly positive partisan voting index, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Recent developments reinforce this positioning, including the June 2 primary in which former U.S. Representative and longtime local official Hilda Solis secured the top spot and advanced alongside Republican Pedro Casas. The top-two format and limited Republican field have narrowed the contest to a matchup unlikely to shift materially absent major unforeseen events. Potential challenges include an unusually low Democratic turnout, a national political realignment exceeding recent precedents, or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or eligibility issues, though structural factors in this Southern California suburban district make such outcomes improbable based on established electoral baselines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$58,840 交易量
$58,840 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
2%
$58,840 交易量
$58,840 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$29,243 交易量
95%
共和党
$29,598 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and a strongly positive partisan voting index, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Recent developments reinforce this positioning, including the June 2 primary in which former U.S. Representative and longtime local official Hilda Solis secured the top spot and advanced alongside Republican Pedro Casas. The top-two format and limited Republican field have narrowed the contest to a matchup unlikely to shift materially absent major unforeseen events. Potential challenges include an unusually low Democratic turnout, a national political realignment exceeding recent precedents, or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or eligibility issues, though structural factors in this Southern California suburban district make such outcomes improbable based on established electoral baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$58,840结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and a strongly positive partisan voting index, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Recent developments reinforce this positioning, including the June 2 primary in which former U.S. Representative and longtime local official Hilda Solis secured the top spot and advanced alongside Republican Pedro Casas. The top-two format and limited Republican field have narrowed the contest to a matchup unlikely to shift materially absent major unforeseen events. Potential challenges include an unusually low Democratic turnout, a national political realignment exceeding recent precedents, or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or eligibility issues, though structural factors in this Southern California suburban district make such outcomes improbable based on established electoral baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$58,840结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in historical voting patterns and a strongly positive partisan voting index, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Recent developments reinforce this positioning, including the June 2 primary in which former U.S. Representative and longtime local official Hilda Solis secured the top spot and advanced alongside Republican Pedro Casas. The top-two format and limited Republican field have narrowed the contest to a matchup unlikely to shift materially absent major unforeseen events. Potential challenges include an unusually low Democratic turnout, a national political realignment exceeding recent precedents, or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or eligibility issues, though structural factors in this Southern California suburban district make such outcomes improbable based on established electoral baselines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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