The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$58,840 交易量
$58,840 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
2%
$58,840 交易量
$58,840 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$29,243 交易量
95%
共和党
$29,598 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$58,840结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$58,840结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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