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政治·文化

埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？

Market icon
政治·文化

埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？

5月 1

6月 1

5月 1

6月 1

1240-1279 14.6%

1160-1199 13.0%

1200-1239 12.8%

1000-1039 12.4%

Polymarket

$7,875,757 交易量

1240-1279 14.6%

1160-1199 13.0%

1200-1239 12.8%

1000-1039 12.4%

Polymarket

$7,875,757 交易量

540-559

$82,256 交易量

<1%

560-579

$99,163 交易量

<1%

580-599

$96,194 交易量

<1%

600-619

$80,290 交易量

<1%

620-639

$127,478 交易量

<1%

640-659

$126,238 交易量

<1%

660-679

$141,127 交易量

<1%

680-699

$52,072 交易量

<1%

700-719

$68,179 交易量

<1%

720-739

$121,538 交易量

<1%

740-759

$80,221 交易量

<1%

760-779

$39,087 交易量

<1%

780-799

$50,104 交易量

<1%

800-839

$72,136 交易量

<1%

840-879

$87,098 交易量

1%

880-919

$151,529 交易量

1%

920-959

$54,729 交易量

1%

960-999

$34,998 交易量

2%

1000-1039

$41,773 交易量

12%

1040-1079

$91,833 交易量

4%

1080-1119

$61,386 交易量

4%

1120-1159

$113,217 交易量

9%

1160-1199

$274,911 交易量

13%

1200-1239

$168,417 交易量

13%

1240-1279

$87,815 交易量

15%

1280-1319

$171,638 交易量

11%

1320-1359

$241,758 交易量

7%

1360-1399

$214,831 交易量

5%

1400-1439

$521,677 交易量

2%

1440-1479

$85,785 交易量

2%

1480-1519

$72,630 交易量

1%

1520-1559

$89,604 交易量

1%

1560-1599

$108,397 交易量

1%

1600-1679

$103,818 交易量

<1%

1680-1759

$148,414 交易量

<1%

1760-1839

$100,446 交易量

<1%

1840-1919

$156,731 交易量

<1%

1920-1999

$31,374 交易量

<1%

2000+

$29,817 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 1160-1279 tweet ranges for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, with implied probabilities hovering at 13-15% apiece, driven by his consistent 35-45 posts per day pace through the first 16 days—projecting roughly 1,200 total amid steady engagement on Starlink disputes in South Africa, U.S. politics, and Tesla updates. Short-term markets like April 10-17 (270 posts, ~38/day average) and April 13-15 (resolved ~75 over 3 days) underscore this reliability, but no dominant frontrunner emerges due to uncertainty over late-month spikes from viral controversies or slowdowns during business focus. Key differentiators include potential news catalysts like earnings reports, with resolution hinging on main feed posts, quotes, and reposts excluding most replies. Conditions can shift rapidly with Musk's cultural footprint.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$7,875,757
结束日期
2026-05-01
市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

结算来源

https://x.com/elonmusk

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race among 1160-1279 tweet ranges for Elon Musk's April 2026 X activity, with implied probabilities hovering at 13-15% apiece, driven by his consistent 35-45 posts per day pace through the first 16 days—projecting roughly 1,200 total amid steady engagement on Starlink disputes in South Africa, U.S. politics, and Tesla updates. Short-term markets like April 10-17 (270 posts, ~38/day average) and April 13-15 (resolved ~75 over 3 days) underscore this reliability, but no dominant frontrunner emerges due to uncertainty over late-month spikes from viral controversies or slowdowns during business focus. Key differentiators include potential news catalysts like earnings reports, with resolution hinging on main feed posts, quotes, and reposts excluding most replies. Conditions can shift rapidly with Musk's cultural footprint.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$7,875,757
结束日期
2026-05-01
市场开放时间
Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

结算来源

https://x.com/elonmusk

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 66+ 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1240-1279"，概率为 15%，其次是"1160-1199"，概率为 13%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 15¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 15%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？"已产生 $7.9 million 的总交易量（自Feb 24, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 66+ 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？"的当前领先者是"1240-1279"，概率为 15%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 15%。紧随其后的结果是"1160-1199"，概率为 13%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ） #在2026年4月发推文？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。