Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs until 2028, with the next scheduled elections no later than May of that year. Turkey’s constitution imposes a two-term limit, though early elections could theoretically permit another run; no such vote has been called, and officials have signaled the regular timeline remains in place. At age 72, Erdoğan maintains an active schedule, including recent diplomatic engagements, despite occasional unconfirmed reports of fatigue or verbal slips. The main opposition faces ongoing legal and institutional pressures that have reduced its immediate threat. These structural and political factors underpin the 94.5% implied probability that he will remain in office through December 31, 2026, as traders price in the absence of any imminent constitutional, electoral, or health-driven exit.