Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, positioning her for the November 3 general election in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Tokuda's 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the district's partisan composition favoring Democrats by double-digit margins historically. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$63,531 交易量
$63,531 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
6%
$63,531 交易量
$63,531 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$43,095 交易量
96%
共和党
$20,436 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, positioning her for the November 3 general election in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Tokuda's 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the district's partisan composition favoring Democrats by double-digit margins historically. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$63,531结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, positioning her for the November 3 general election in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Tokuda's 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the district's partisan composition favoring Democrats by double-digit margins historically. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$63,531结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 8 primary with over 91 percent of the vote against minor challengers, positioning her for the November 3 general election in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district. The seat carries a consistent Democratic lean, reflected in Tokuda's 66.5 percent victory in 2024 and multiple nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Republican nominee Brenton Awa, a state senator, faces structural headwinds including limited fundraising and the district's partisan composition favoring Democrats by double-digit margins historically. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event for the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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