Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, reflected in the dominant trader consensus for a Democratic general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination in the recent August primary by a comfortable margin over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, preserving his position ahead of the November contest against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. The district's partisan voting index and Case's prior 71.8% general election performance underscore consistent voter preferences in this urban Honolulu area. Historical patterns show no Republican general election wins since 1988, with all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance or unforeseen late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in recent months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,336 交易量
$28,336 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$28,336 交易量
$28,336 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,677 交易量
95%
共和党
$13,658 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, reflected in the dominant trader consensus for a Democratic general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination in the recent August primary by a comfortable margin over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, preserving his position ahead of the November contest against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. The district's partisan voting index and Case's prior 71.8% general election performance underscore consistent voter preferences in this urban Honolulu area. Historical patterns show no Republican general election wins since 1988, with all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance or unforeseen late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$28,336结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, reflected in the dominant trader consensus for a Democratic general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination in the recent August primary by a comfortable margin over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, preserving his position ahead of the November contest against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. The district's partisan voting index and Case's prior 71.8% general election performance underscore consistent voter preferences in this urban Honolulu area. Historical patterns show no Republican general election wins since 1988, with all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance or unforeseen late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,336结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 1st congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, reflected in the dominant trader consensus for a Democratic general election victory. Incumbent Ed Case secured renomination in the recent August primary by a comfortable margin over state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, preserving his position ahead of the November contest against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. The district's partisan voting index and Case's prior 71.8% general election performance underscore consistent voter preferences in this urban Honolulu area. Historical patterns show no Republican general election wins since 1988, with all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. A shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance or unforeseen late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in recent months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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