Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear majority, facing Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in historical vote margins exceeding 70 percent and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Case's established record since 2018, combined with the district's voter base and limited Republican infrastructure statewide, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic outcome. Factors that could shift probabilities include an unforeseen personal or ethical development involving the nominee or an extraordinary national political realignment, though such events remain uncommon in this district's electoral history.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,336 交易量
$28,336 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$28,336 交易量
$28,336 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,677 交易量
95%
共和党
$13,658 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear majority, facing Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in historical vote margins exceeding 70 percent and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Case's established record since 2018, combined with the district's voter base and limited Republican infrastructure statewide, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic outcome. Factors that could shift probabilities include an unforeseen personal or ethical development involving the nominee or an extraordinary national political realignment, though such events remain uncommon in this district's electoral history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$28,336结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear majority, facing Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in historical vote margins exceeding 70 percent and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Case's established record since 2018, combined with the district's voter base and limited Republican infrastructure statewide, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic outcome. Factors that could shift probabilities include an unforeseen personal or ethical development involving the nominee or an extraordinary national political realignment, though such events remain uncommon in this district's electoral history.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$28,336结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured his party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with a clear majority, facing Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. Hawaii's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in historical vote margins exceeding 70 percent and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Democratic. Case's established record since 2018, combined with the district's voter base and limited Republican infrastructure statewide, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Democratic outcome. Factors that could shift probabilities include an unforeseen personal or ethical development involving the nominee or an extraordinary national political realignment, though such events remain uncommon in this district's electoral history.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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