Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's renomination after a decisive primary victory, combined with the district's narrow Democratic lean and consistent "Likely Democratic" ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato, anchors trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz faces structural headwinds in a seat where recent redistricting efforts to favor the GOP stalled in the state Senate. With no major scandals, polling shifts, or campaign developments reported since the May primaries, the implied probability reflects the incumbent advantage and historical voting patterns rather than a contested toss-up.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
83%
共和党
15%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$1,892 交易量
83%
共和党
$781 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's renomination after a decisive primary victory, combined with the district's narrow Democratic lean and consistent "Likely Democratic" ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato, anchors trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz faces structural headwinds in a seat where recent redistricting efforts to favor the GOP stalled in the state Senate. With no major scandals, polling shifts, or campaign developments reported since the May primaries, the implied probability reflects the incumbent advantage and historical voting patterns rather than a contested toss-up.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
交易量
$2,673结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's renomination after a decisive primary victory, combined with the district's narrow Democratic lean and consistent "Likely Democratic" ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato, anchors trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz faces structural headwinds in a seat where recent redistricting efforts to favor the GOP stalled in the state Senate. With no major scandals, polling shifts, or campaign developments reported since the May primaries, the implied probability reflects the incumbent advantage and historical voting patterns rather than a contested toss-up.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$2,673结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan's renomination after a decisive primary victory, combined with the district's narrow Democratic lean and consistent "Likely Democratic" ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato, anchors trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Republican nominee Barb Regnitz faces structural headwinds in a seat where recent redistricting efforts to favor the GOP stalled in the state Senate. With no major scandals, polling shifts, or campaign developments reported since the May primaries, the implied probability reflects the incumbent advantage and historical voting patterns rather than a contested toss-up.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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