Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converge on a Paris high temperature near 11°C for March 28, fueling the 23.5% implied probability for that outcome amid tight clustering from 9–13°C. March climatology typically sees highs around 12°C, but a persistent cool northerly airflow from recent Atlantic low-pressure systems caps peaks, with model spreads of ±2°C differentiating lower (9–10°C) from higher (12–13°C) bins based on cloud cover and frontal passage timing. Météo-France updates reinforce this moderation, as diurnal temperature ranges narrow under overcast skies, sidelining extremes below 8°C or above 16°C given low geopotential height anomalies. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.