Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月6日华沙最高气温？
7月6日华沙最高气温？
22°C 100.0%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$53,263 交易量
$53,263 交易量
2026-07-06
17°C或以下
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
是
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C或更高
否
22°C 100.0%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$53,263 交易量
$53,263 交易量
2026-07-06
17°C或以下
$4,572 交易量
否
18°C
$3,490 交易量
否
19°C
$5,205 交易量
否
20°C
$6,670 交易量
否
21°C
$6,258 交易量
否
22°C
$9,060 交易量
是
23°C
$4,995 交易量
否
24°C
$3,938 交易量
否
25°C
$2,396 交易量
否
26°C
$2,823 交易量
否
27°C或更高
$3,856 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$53,263结束日期
2026-07-06市场开放时间
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$53,263结束日期
2026-07-06市场开放时间
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Recent medium-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s July 6 maximum near 21–22 °C under a transitional pattern featuring modest southwesterly flow and limited daytime insolation from variable cloud cover. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those brackets, as traders weigh the risk of slight warm advection versus a cooler maritime influence that could cap the high at 20 °C or allow a brief push to 23 °C. Early-July climatology favors highs of 23–25 °C, but the current setup remains cooler than average, widening the plausible range across adjacent outcomes and keeping implied probabilities for 21 °C and 22 °C nearly even. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact peak before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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