Current forecast models from Météo-France and the ECMWF show the overnight minimum temperature in Paris on July 31 clustering near 19°C amid an ongoing late-July heat episode, with daytime highs projected at 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This strong model consensus, combined with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, underpins the 99% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Resolution depends on official observations at Paris-Montsouris or equivalent stations. Shifts could arise from last-minute model updates incorporating new upper-air data, unexpected increases in low-level moisture or wind, or localized urban heat island effects altering the recorded low.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月31日巴黎最低气温？
7月31日巴黎最低气温？
19°C 100.0%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
20°C <1%
$10,252 交易量
$10,252 交易量
2026-07-31
17°C或以下
否
18°C
否
19°C
是
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C或更高
否
19°C 100.0%
17°C或以下 <1%
18°C <1%
20°C <1%
$10,252 交易量
$10,252 交易量
2026-07-31
17°C或以下
$1,999 交易量
否
18°C
$2,281 交易量
否
19°C
$2,548 交易量
是
20°C
$413 交易量
否
21°C
$617 交易量
否
22°C
$386 交易量
否
23°C
$368 交易量
否
24°C
$346 交易量
否
25°C
$683 交易量
否
26°C
$316 交易量
否
27°C或更高
$296 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Météo-France and the ECMWF show the overnight minimum temperature in Paris on July 31 clustering near 19°C amid an ongoing late-July heat episode, with daytime highs projected at 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This strong model consensus, combined with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, underpins the 99% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Resolution depends on official observations at Paris-Montsouris or equivalent stations. Shifts could arise from last-minute model updates incorporating new upper-air data, unexpected increases in low-level moisture or wind, or localized urban heat island effects altering the recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$10,252结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from Météo-France and the ECMWF show the overnight minimum temperature in Paris on July 31 clustering near 19°C amid an ongoing late-July heat episode, with daytime highs projected at 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This strong model consensus, combined with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, underpins the 99% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Resolution depends on official observations at Paris-Montsouris or equivalent stations. Shifts could arise from last-minute model updates incorporating new upper-air data, unexpected increases in low-level moisture or wind, or localized urban heat island effects altering the recorded low.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$10,252结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Current forecast models from Météo-France and the ECMWF show the overnight minimum temperature in Paris on July 31 clustering near 19°C amid an ongoing late-July heat episode, with daytime highs projected at 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. This strong model consensus, combined with historical analogs for similar synoptic patterns, underpins the 99% market-implied probability for exactly 19°C. Resolution depends on official observations at Paris-Montsouris or equivalent stations. Shifts could arise from last-minute model updates incorporating new upper-air data, unexpected increases in low-level moisture or wind, or localized urban heat island effects altering the recorded low.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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