Recent model consensus from meteorological agencies, including updated runs showing stable high pressure and limited cloud cover over Moscow, has aligned closely on a daily maximum of 24°C under partly sunny conditions with light northwest winds. Surface observations through midday on July 31 confirm temperatures climbing steadily toward this mark without exceeding it, consistent with climatological norms for late July where typical highs average near 23–25°C. This tight clustering of forecasts and real-time data has produced the overwhelming market-implied probability for 24°C. The outcome could shift only under unexpected developments such as rapid afternoon clearing that allows additional solar heating or revised station measurements from official monitoring networks.