Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙8月3日最高气温？
华沙8月3日最高气温？
29°C 34%
30°C 23%
28°C 20%
31°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
25°C or below
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
20%
29°C
34%
30°C
23%
31°C
16%
32°C
3%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
29°C 34%
30°C 23%
28°C 20%
31°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
25°C or below
$250 交易量
1%
26°C
$20 交易量
3%
27°C
$32 交易量
5%
28°C
$40 交易量
20%
29°C
$7 交易量
34%
30°C
$9 交易量
23%
31°C
$0 交易量
16%
32°C
$0 交易量
3%
33°C
$20 交易量
3%
34°C
$20 交易量
<1%
35°C or higher
$15 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$412结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$412结束日期
2026-08-03市场开放时间
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent short-range model guidance from ECMWF and GFS places Warsaw’s peak temperature on August 3 near 28–30°C under a broad high-pressure ridge, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes. Above-normal seasonal warmth linked to persistent European high pressure and residual El Niño teleconnections has sustained trader confidence in this range, while historical August maxima average 23–26°C. Key variables include exact timing of the daily peak, boundary-layer mixing, possible afternoon convective clouds, and minor model spread on 850 hPa temperatures. New 00z/12z runs and official Polish meteorological briefings over the next 48 hours remain the primary catalysts that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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