**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.** Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月1日惠灵顿的最高温度？
7月1日惠灵顿的最高温度？
12°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$249,813 交易量
$249,813 交易量
2026-07-01
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$249,813 交易量
$249,813 交易量
2026-07-01
6°C or below
$55,583 交易量
No
7°C
$15,725 交易量
No
8°C
$24,289 交易量
No
9°C
$33,025 交易量
No
10°C
$32,976 交易量
No
11°C
$25,663 交易量
No
12°C
$18,216 交易量
Yes
13°C
$17,678 交易量
No
14°C
$10,804 交易量
No
15°C
$13,316 交易量
No
16°C or higher
$2,538 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.**
Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$249,813结束日期
2026-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.**
Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$249,813结束日期
2026-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
**Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Wellington on July 1, 2026, centers on 12°C as the clear leader (47% implied probability), followed by 11°C (24%), reflecting short-term forecast consensus and climatological norms for early winter.** Current MetService guidance indicates partly cloudy conditions with light winds on July 1, supporting a daytime maximum near 12°C and overnight low around 4°C. This aligns with Wellington’s July average high of approximately 12°C (53–54°F), where daily maxima typically range 11–13°C. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures for the Wellington region, bolstered by the emerging El Niño pattern favoring west–southwest winds and cooler anomalies. AccuWeather’s extended July outlook similarly projects daily highs between 10.5–14°C, with the most probable values clustered around the long-term mean. No significant model shifts or atmospheric developments have emerged in recent days to favor warmer or colder outliers, keeping the market-implied odds anchored to the 11–13°C band while the tight timing to resolution limits upside for extremes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题