Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democrat Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the March primaries. The southeastern Illinois district, encompassing areas such as Carbondale, O'Fallon, and Marion, carries a pronounced Republican tilt rated around R+22, reflected in Bost's 74 percent margin in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established record and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A narrow path for Democrats would require an unusually large national swing, a late personal or legal development affecting Bost, or sharply elevated turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets that has not materialized in recent cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,481 交易量
$21,481 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
3%
$21,481 交易量
$21,481 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$10,390 交易量
94%
民主党
$11,092 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democrat Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the March primaries. The southeastern Illinois district, encompassing areas such as Carbondale, O'Fallon, and Marion, carries a pronounced Republican tilt rated around R+22, reflected in Bost's 74 percent margin in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established record and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A narrow path for Democrats would require an unusually large national swing, a late personal or legal development affecting Bost, or sharply elevated turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets that has not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$21,481结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democrat Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the March primaries. The southeastern Illinois district, encompassing areas such as Carbondale, O'Fallon, and Marion, carries a pronounced Republican tilt rated around R+22, reflected in Bost's 74 percent margin in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established record and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A narrow path for Democrats would require an unusually large national swing, a late personal or legal development affecting Bost, or sharply elevated turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets that has not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,481结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democrat Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district on November 3, 2026. Both candidates advanced unopposed through the March primaries. The southeastern Illinois district, encompassing areas such as Carbondale, O'Fallon, and Marion, carries a pronounced Republican tilt rated around R+22, reflected in Bost's 74 percent margin in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established record and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A narrow path for Democrats would require an unusually large national swing, a late personal or legal development affecting Bost, or sharply elevated turnout in Democratic-leaning pockets that has not materialized in recent cycles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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