Israeli airspace has remained open in recent weeks amid a pause in major Iranian missile and drone salvos following the breakdown of the June U.S.-Iran memorandum, with only isolated incidents reported in September. Ongoing diplomatic contacts at the UN General Assembly, including direct U.S.-Iran talks and statements from both sides signaling openness to further negotiations on sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader de-escalation, have reduced immediate escalation risks. Past closures occurred during intense strike-and-retaliation cycles earlier in 2026, but current NOTAMs and EASA advisories emphasize caution rather than shutdowns, while Israeli aviation authorities have prioritized keeping commercial operations running. Traders price the October 15–31 window at just an 8.5% chance of closure, reflecting the absence of verified triggers for renewed full restrictions in that timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airspace has remained open in recent weeks amid a pause in major Iranian missile and drone salvos following the breakdown of the June U.S.-Iran memorandum, with only isolated incidents reported in September. Ongoing diplomatic contacts at the UN General Assembly, including direct U.S.-Iran talks and statements from both sides signaling openness to further negotiations on sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader de-escalation, have reduced immediate escalation risks. Past closures occurred during intense strike-and-retaliation cycles earlier in 2026, but current NOTAMs and EASA advisories emphasize caution rather than shutdowns, while Israeli aviation authorities have prioritized keeping commercial operations running. Traders price the October 15–31 window at just an 8.5% chance of closure, reflecting the absence of verified triggers for renewed full restrictions in that timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 3:04 PM ET
交易量
$988结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 3:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airspace has remained open in recent weeks amid a pause in major Iranian missile and drone salvos following the breakdown of the June U.S.-Iran memorandum, with only isolated incidents reported in September. Ongoing diplomatic contacts at the UN General Assembly, including direct U.S.-Iran talks and statements from both sides signaling openness to further negotiations on sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader de-escalation, have reduced immediate escalation risks. Past closures occurred during intense strike-and-retaliation cycles earlier in 2026, but current NOTAMs and EASA advisories emphasize caution rather than shutdowns, while Israeli aviation authorities have prioritized keeping commercial operations running. Traders price the October 15–31 window at just an 8.5% chance of closure, reflecting the absence of verified triggers for renewed full restrictions in that timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region (FIR)/LLLL) is closed at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions.
The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before Contract Issuance; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before Contract Issuance, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region.
A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. A qualifying closure that took effect before October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and remains in effect at any point between October 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will also qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 3:04 PM ETIsraeli airspace has remained open in recent weeks amid a pause in major Iranian missile and drone salvos following the breakdown of the June U.S.-Iran memorandum, with only isolated incidents reported in September. Ongoing diplomatic contacts at the UN General Assembly, including direct U.S.-Iran talks and statements from both sides signaling openness to further negotiations on sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and broader de-escalation, have reduced immediate escalation risks. Past closures occurred during intense strike-and-retaliation cycles earlier in 2026, but current NOTAMs and EASA advisories emphasize caution rather than shutdowns, while Israeli aviation authorities have prioritized keeping commercial operations running. Traders price the October 15–31 window at just an 8.5% chance of closure, reflecting the absence of verified triggers for renewed full restrictions in that timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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