Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on self-determination and regime change amid ongoing protests and external military pressure, yet no independence declaration has occurred. Trader consensus at 97.5% against such a declaration reflects Iran's sustained security apparatus, cross-border strikes on opposition bases, and explicit warnings from Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government against using its territory for operations. Regional actors including Turkey maintain firm opposition to any fragmentation precedent, while U.S. signals on direct support remain inconsistent. Full secession would require sustained regime collapse, cohesive internal forces, and broad international backing—conditions not currently met. Late shifts could arise from escalated conflict creating a power vacuum or coordinated external intervention enabling territorial control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$147,963 交易量
$147,963 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$147,963 交易量
$147,963 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on self-determination and regime change amid ongoing protests and external military pressure, yet no independence declaration has occurred. Trader consensus at 97.5% against such a declaration reflects Iran's sustained security apparatus, cross-border strikes on opposition bases, and explicit warnings from Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government against using its territory for operations. Regional actors including Turkey maintain firm opposition to any fragmentation precedent, while U.S. signals on direct support remain inconsistent. Full secession would require sustained regime collapse, cohesive internal forces, and broad international backing—conditions not currently met. Late shifts could arise from escalated conflict creating a power vacuum or coordinated external intervention enabling territorial control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
交易量
$147,963结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on self-determination and regime change amid ongoing protests and external military pressure, yet no independence declaration has occurred. Trader consensus at 97.5% against such a declaration reflects Iran's sustained security apparatus, cross-border strikes on opposition bases, and explicit warnings from Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government against using its territory for operations. Regional actors including Turkey maintain firm opposition to any fragmentation precedent, while U.S. signals on direct support remain inconsistent. Full secession would require sustained regime collapse, cohesive internal forces, and broad international backing—conditions not currently met. Late shifts could arise from escalated conflict creating a power vacuum or coordinated external intervention enabling territorial control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$147,963结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 focused on self-determination and regime change amid ongoing protests and external military pressure, yet no independence declaration has occurred. Trader consensus at 97.5% against such a declaration reflects Iran's sustained security apparatus, cross-border strikes on opposition bases, and explicit warnings from Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government against using its territory for operations. Regional actors including Turkey maintain firm opposition to any fragmentation precedent, while U.S. signals on direct support remain inconsistent. Full secession would require sustained regime collapse, cohesive internal forces, and broad international backing—conditions not currently met. Late shifts could arise from escalated conflict creating a power vacuum or coordinated external intervention enabling territorial control.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题