Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026, uniting groups including the PDKI, PJAK, PAK, and Komala around regime change and self-determination in Eastern Kurdistan. Their joint statements and transition plans emphasize democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas after any central government collapse, rather than immediate secession or assertion of a new sovereign state. Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran, Iranian airstrikes on Kurdish regions, and mixed external signals have fueled limited insurgency and strikes but no formal independence declaration or territorial claim separate from Iran. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline days away and no verified move by recognized Kurdish organizations, trader pricing at 97.9% for No reflects this consistent positioning. A sudden coalition announcement asserting full independence amid further regime weakening remains the main scenario that could shift the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$150,310 交易量
$150,310 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$150,310 交易量
$150,310 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026, uniting groups including the PDKI, PJAK, PAK, and Komala around regime change and self-determination in Eastern Kurdistan. Their joint statements and transition plans emphasize democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas after any central government collapse, rather than immediate secession or assertion of a new sovereign state. Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran, Iranian airstrikes on Kurdish regions, and mixed external signals have fueled limited insurgency and strikes but no formal independence declaration or territorial claim separate from Iran. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline days away and no verified move by recognized Kurdish organizations, trader pricing at 97.9% for No reflects this consistent positioning. A sudden coalition announcement asserting full independence amid further regime weakening remains the main scenario that could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
交易量
$150,310结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026, uniting groups including the PDKI, PJAK, PAK, and Komala around regime change and self-determination in Eastern Kurdistan. Their joint statements and transition plans emphasize democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas after any central government collapse, rather than immediate secession or assertion of a new sovereign state. Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran, Iranian airstrikes on Kurdish regions, and mixed external signals have fueled limited insurgency and strikes but no formal independence declaration or territorial claim separate from Iran. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline days away and no verified move by recognized Kurdish organizations, trader pricing at 97.9% for No reflects this consistent positioning. A sudden coalition announcement asserting full independence amid further regime weakening remains the main scenario that could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$150,310结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026, uniting groups including the PDKI, PJAK, PAK, and Komala around regime change and self-determination in Eastern Kurdistan. Their joint statements and transition plans emphasize democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas after any central government collapse, rather than immediate secession or assertion of a new sovereign state. Ongoing US-Israel strikes on Iran, Iranian airstrikes on Kurdish regions, and mixed external signals have fueled limited insurgency and strikes but no formal independence declaration or territorial claim separate from Iran. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline days away and no verified move by recognized Kurdish organizations, trader pricing at 97.9% for No reflects this consistent positioning. A sudden coalition announcement asserting full independence amid further regime weakening remains the main scenario that could shift the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题