Kurdish opposition groups in Iran have formed coalitions and participated in 2025–2026 protests and strikes while coordinating limited insurgent activity against regime forces, yet their stated objectives center on self-determination, regime change, and democratic administration of Kurdish-majority areas within a post-regime Iranian framework rather than immediate secession. Iranian security forces maintain firm control over the region despite internal unrest and external pressures, while neighboring states and international actors have historically opposed Kurdish statehood claims due to risks of regional fragmentation. Traders assign a 97.9% probability to “No” because no major Kurdish faction has issued a formal independence declaration, and structural barriers—including military disparities, lack of unified territorial control, and absence of broad diplomatic recognition—remain prohibitive. A full regime collapse creating a sustained power vacuum, combined with external military backing that shifts group priorities toward outright statehood, could still alter the trajectory.