Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, including those in the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan formed in February 2026, have coordinated calls for regime change and self-determination in Kurdish-majority areas but have consistently framed these goals as autonomy or federal arrangements inside a post-Islamic Republic Iran rather than outright secession. No group has issued an explicit declaration of independence or asserted governing authority over territory, despite protests, strikes, and reported external discussions of support for anti-regime activity. Traders assign 98% probability to No by the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline because these positions align with long-standing patterns of Kurdish political organizing in Iran, where full separation lacks unified backing and faces formidable military and diplomatic barriers. A sudden regime collapse or shift in coalition rhetoric could still trigger a declaration, though such moves remain outside current public statements and historical precedent.