Musk’s shareholder-approved $1 trillion performance package, with vesting tied to robotaxi scale, Optimus production, and an $8.5 trillion market cap through 2028, anchors the 96.3% market-implied odds against his departure before 2027. Traders see his ownership stake, board backing, and return to full-time focus on Tesla after winding down government work as reinforcing factors. Recent Cybercab robotaxi deployments in Austin and ongoing AI hardware investments further embed him in the company’s core strategy. While regulatory setbacks on unsupervised FSD certification or major safety incidents could create pressure, his control and incentive alignment make an exit before year-end highly improbable absent unforeseen personal or operational shocks.