Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于On or prior to September 1 39%
September 2 24%
September 3 17%
September 4 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
On or prior to September 1
26%
September 2
24%
September 3
27%
September 4
12%
September 5
9%
September 6
5%
9月7日
5%
9月8日
5%
9月9日
7%
9月10日
8%
9月11日
5%
9 月 12 日
5%
9月13日
3%
9月14日
7%
9 月 15 日
26%
截至9月15日没有发布
8%
On or prior to September 1 39%
September 2 24%
September 3 17%
September 4 12%
最新
最新
2026-09-01
On or prior to September 1
$145 交易量
26%
September 2
$39 交易量
24%
September 3
$87 交易量
27%
September 4
$51 交易量
12%
September 5
$457 交易量
9%
September 6
$457 交易量
5%
9月7日
$39 交易量
5%
9月8日
$51 交易量
5%
9月9日
$51 交易量
7%
9月10日
$39 交易量
8%
9月11日
$50 交易量
5%
9 月 12 日
$47 交易量
5%
9月13日
$117 交易量
3%
9月14日
$39 交易量
7%
9 月 15 日
$47 交易量
26%
截至9月15日没有发布
$61 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,776结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini," be labeled "Flash" rather than "Flash-Lite," be positioned as Google's core general-purpose Gemini Flash model, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.7 Flash would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash, while models labeled "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Gemini 3.7 Flash, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash Image, Gemini Flash-Lite Image, Gemini Omni Flash, or Flash TTS or Live models, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,776结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 4:09 PM ETGoogle’s accelerated Flash iteration cadence drives the market, with Gemini 3.8 Flash entering internal Jetski testing just 14 days after the August 13 release of 3.7 Flash and only weeks after 3.6. Trader consensus, reflected in the 37% implied probability for September 11, centers on this pattern of rapid algorithmic refinements and developer feedback loops targeting coding and agentic performance. No public confirmation or pricing details exist yet, though Google’s stated goal of near-monthly updates and competitive pressure on low-cost inference keep early-to-mid September dates dominant while leaving room for last-minute shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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