New Jersey’s 12th congressional district has long favored Democrats in House races, a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary that surgeon and Army veteran Adam Hamawy won in June 2026, positioning him against Republican Gregg Mele, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary. The district’s voter registration and past results create a steep path for any Republican general-election candidate. Late developments such as a significant scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this seat indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,311 交易量
$22,311 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$22,311 交易量
$22,311 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$14,221 交易量
94%
共和党
$8,089 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 12th congressional district has long favored Democrats in House races, a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary that surgeon and Army veteran Adam Hamawy won in June 2026, positioning him against Republican Gregg Mele, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary. The district’s voter registration and past results create a steep path for any Republican general-election candidate. Late developments such as a significant scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this seat indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$22,311结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey’s 12th congressional district has long favored Democrats in House races, a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary that surgeon and Army veteran Adam Hamawy won in June 2026, positioning him against Republican Gregg Mele, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary. The district’s voter registration and past results create a steep path for any Republican general-election candidate. Late developments such as a significant scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this seat indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,311结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey’s 12th congressional district has long favored Democrats in House races, a structural advantage reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman opened a crowded Democratic primary that surgeon and Army veteran Adam Hamawy won in June 2026, positioning him against Republican Gregg Mele, who ran unopposed in his party’s primary. The district’s voter registration and past results create a steep path for any Republican general-election candidate. Late developments such as a significant scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an unusually strong national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in this seat indicate limited realistic paths for an upset before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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