Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
92%
共和党
16%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$827 交易量
92%
共和党
$605 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
交易量
$1,432结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,432结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Steven Horsford, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada’s 4th congressional district since 2019, holds a substantial advantage heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries a modest Democratic lean, reflected in Horsford’s 52.7% win in 2024 and its “Likely Democratic” rating from nonpartisan forecasters. Cody Whipple’s June 9 Republican primary victory has not altered the race’s fundamentals, as the district remains low-priority terrain for national Republican resources. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 90% because structural factors—incumbency, fundraising patterns, and the district’s partisan voting index—have historically produced consistent advantages for the sitting member in similar environments. No major late-cycle developments have yet emerged to shift this consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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