Oregon's 1st congressional district has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with the incumbent Suzanne Bonamici securing reelection by wide margins, including 68.6% in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the completion of May 2026 primaries that confirmed Bonamici as the Democratic nominee against Republican Barbara Kahl, underpins the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district's voter base in northwest Oregon has shown limited responsiveness to Republican challengers, and no major late developments have emerged to alter the balance. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national political shift, a significant personal or campaign event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical patterns indicate such changes remain unlikely to overcome the established partisan lean before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,389 交易量
$11,389 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$11,389 交易量
$11,389 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$10,214 交易量
95%
共和党
$1,174 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon's 1st congressional district has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with the incumbent Suzanne Bonamici securing reelection by wide margins, including 68.6% in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the completion of May 2026 primaries that confirmed Bonamici as the Democratic nominee against Republican Barbara Kahl, underpins the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district's voter base in northwest Oregon has shown limited responsiveness to Republican challengers, and no major late developments have emerged to alter the balance. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national political shift, a significant personal or campaign event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical patterns indicate such changes remain unlikely to overcome the established partisan lean before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$11,389结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oregon's 1st congressional district has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with the incumbent Suzanne Bonamici securing reelection by wide margins, including 68.6% in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the completion of May 2026 primaries that confirmed Bonamici as the Democratic nominee against Republican Barbara Kahl, underpins the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district's voter base in northwest Oregon has shown limited responsiveness to Republican challengers, and no major late developments have emerged to alter the balance. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national political shift, a significant personal or campaign event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical patterns indicate such changes remain unlikely to overcome the established partisan lean before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,389结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oregon's 1st congressional district has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, with the incumbent Suzanne Bonamici securing reelection by wide margins, including 68.6% in 2024. This structural advantage, combined with the completion of May 2026 primaries that confirmed Bonamici as the Democratic nominee against Republican Barbara Kahl, underpins the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The district's voter base in northwest Oregon has shown limited responsiveness to Republican challengers, and no major late developments have emerged to alter the balance. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national political shift, a significant personal or campaign event affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Republican turnout, though historical patterns indicate such changes remain unlikely to overcome the established partisan lean before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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