Flight cancellation traders on Polymarket give "No" a slim 51% edge for fewer than 500 US flights scrapped on March 30, reflecting steady spring weather forecasts across major hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth, with no severe storms or nor'easters predicted in the latest NOAA models. Recent days saw under 300 cancellations daily amid minor delays from FAA staffing shortages and Boeing mechanical issues, keeping volumes below the threshold historically hit during blizzards or summer thunderstorms. The tight race stems from tail risks like sudden airline IT failures—echoing Southwest's 2022 meltdown—or unforecasted Midwest turbulence, which could surge numbers above 500; conversely, clear skies through midnight ET would solidify the "No" consensus as the FAA tallies finalize.