With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于基科·藤森 领先5%+ 82.0%
基科·藤森 <5% 15.3%
其他 2.9%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 15%+ <1%
$299,846 交易量
$299,846 交易量
2026-04-12
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 15%+
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 10-15%
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 5-10%
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 <5%
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·乔 5%+
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌 <5%
<1%
基科·藤森 领先5%+
82%
基科·藤森 <5%
15%
豪尔赫·涅托
<1%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
<1%
其他
3%
基科·藤森 领先5%+ 82.0%
基科·藤森 <5% 15.3%
其他 2.9%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 15%+ <1%
$299,846 交易量
$299,846 交易量
2026-04-12
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 15%+
$8,336 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 10-15%
$10,022 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 5-10%
$6,707 交易量
<1%
拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加 <5%
$11,227 交易量
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·乔 5%+
$6,911 交易量
<1%
阿方索·洛佩斯·查乌 <5%
$6,047 交易量
<1%
基科·藤森 领先5%+
$85,286 交易量
82%
基科·藤森 <5%
$114,367 交易量
15%
豪尔赫·涅托
$6,335 交易量
<1%
罗伯托·桑切斯·帕洛米诺
$10,618 交易量
<1%
沃尔夫冈·格罗佐
$4,420 交易量
<1%
卡洛斯·阿尔瓦雷斯
$5,810 交易量
<1%
其他
$25,818 交易量
3%
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
交易量
$299,846结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$299,846结束日期
2026-04-12市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 91% of actas processed by ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori leads Peru's first-round presidential election at approximately 17%, holding a near-5% margin over second-place Roberto Sánchez amid a fragmented field of more than 35 candidates, anchoring trader consensus on her 5%+ victory margin. Exit polls from Ipsos and Datum on April 12-13 similarly showed her at 16-17%, with no challenger nearing the 50% threshold for an outright win, setting up a likely June 7 runoff. Persistent vote-counting delays from logistical issues and extended polling have sparked unsubstantiated fraud claims, but her lead has stabilized across urban and rural tallies, boosting confidence in the implied probability while the final 9% of ballots could tip the exact margin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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