Redistricting by Texas Republicans in 2025 substantially altered TX-09 boundaries to create a more favorable partisan environment for the GOP, shifting the seat from long-term Democratic control under former incumbent Al Green—who opted to run in the neighboring 18th district instead. This structural change underpins the Republican nominee Alex Mealer's 78.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Mealer secured the nomination by defeating state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 26 Republican runoff, while Democrat Leticia Gutierrez emerged from her party's March primary. Trader positioning aligns with the district's updated voting patterns and the open-seat dynamics ahead of the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
78%
民主党
19%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
共和党
$2,560 交易量
78%
民主党
$2,354 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting by Texas Republicans in 2025 substantially altered TX-09 boundaries to create a more favorable partisan environment for the GOP, shifting the seat from long-term Democratic control under former incumbent Al Green—who opted to run in the neighboring 18th district instead. This structural change underpins the Republican nominee Alex Mealer's 78.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Mealer secured the nomination by defeating state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 26 Republican runoff, while Democrat Leticia Gutierrez emerged from her party's March primary. Trader positioning aligns with the district's updated voting patterns and the open-seat dynamics ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$4,914结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting by Texas Republicans in 2025 substantially altered TX-09 boundaries to create a more favorable partisan environment for the GOP, shifting the seat from long-term Democratic control under former incumbent Al Green—who opted to run in the neighboring 18th district instead. This structural change underpins the Republican nominee Alex Mealer's 78.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Mealer secured the nomination by defeating state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 26 Republican runoff, while Democrat Leticia Gutierrez emerged from her party's March primary. Trader positioning aligns with the district's updated voting patterns and the open-seat dynamics ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,914结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting by Texas Republicans in 2025 substantially altered TX-09 boundaries to create a more favorable partisan environment for the GOP, shifting the seat from long-term Democratic control under former incumbent Al Green—who opted to run in the neighboring 18th district instead. This structural change underpins the Republican nominee Alex Mealer's 78.5% implied probability in the November 3, 2026 general election. Mealer secured the nomination by defeating state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the May 26 Republican runoff, while Democrat Leticia Gutierrez emerged from her party's March primary. Trader positioning aligns with the district's updated voting patterns and the open-seat dynamics ahead of the general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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