US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
16% 概率
$242,125 交易量
$242,125 交易量
2026-12-31
是
16% 概率
$242,125 交易量
$242,125 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$242,125结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$242,125结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETUS-Cuba tensions have featured sustained economic pressure through sanctions, an oil blockade, and expanded intelligence operations, alongside earlier military posturing such as carrier deployments and surveillance flights. These measures have aimed at extracting concessions without triggering direct confrontation. As of late August 2026, Cuban officials confirmed recent bilateral talks focused on dialogue to address differences while respecting sovereignty, facilitated by external actors and conducted on terms of reciprocity. No US military clash with Cuban forces has occurred despite months of friction and contingency planning. Traders therefore assign an 84.5% probability to “No,” viewing economic coercion and diplomacy as the dominant approach through year-end rather than kinetic engagement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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